October 1st, 2008

Nifty will open with a gap up, and may go up to 4075-4091 for intraday, where it will face some serious resistence.

i dont expect nifty to cross 4091 without giving a dip, so any longs if held from lower levels should be booked out.

for any positional view, 3959 will be a very important level, and closing below this, may see some weakness in near term again.

September 30, 2008

Another day, and fall, frankly markets doesnt have anything for bulls at all.nifty may open with a huge gap down around 3690 and may fall to 3636 fut for the day.


i know some of the bulls would have never dreamt about these levels, but yes, it can easily come now.


so now, is a bottom in place? who r we to decide?never fight the trend, and buying shud happen only once we see a reversal. 


dont try to find the bottom

Nifty Oct Fut (view for intraday-29th Sept 08)

Below 3920-3922 zone , expect panic and more caution, support at 3871-3873 range

For the week begining 29th Sept, 08

Dear Friends,

Last week saw another American banking giant collapse in the Sub prime mayhem.Washington mutual was the latest bank which has been involved in a force sell off by the US FED.It is said that the management of Washington Mutual came to know about the deal after the press release.Off course the shareholders of WAMU have been wiped out .For those who dont know about Washington mutual its the third largest bank in USA.There is an increasing news flow that Wachovia is the next kid on the block. 

Coming to our markets we are in a trendless, volume less market.I believe that we might be in the very same range for coming months and may be quarters.Traders should note that the markets will give trading opportunities on either side.Point is that one should know when to buy and when to sell to make money.If a Trader can not short at 4400 he should not short at 4000 odd levels.Sl in both the cases is important.As of now the trend remains Sideways for me.There is a belief in a section of the markets that we might not sustain 3800 odd levels.For me its a double Bottom till now and until we close below the same I wont advise naked shorts in Nifty.There is always a Bear and a Bull market in some sectors/stocks in the market.One has to get hold of the same and make money in markets.

There are some important events scheduled for the coming week.

1. Before the Indian markets open on Monday we will react to the outcome of the US Congress decision on the 700bln$ bailout.

2.We have the quarterly closing on 30th of October and we will see some window dressing by mutual funds prior to the same.So have an eye on the Mf owned stocks.

3. We might see some Hedge funds redemption in the first week as some of them might have lost Good money in bad trades in Oil.

4.Keep a track of your trades.Any leverage even on the bear side which goes wrong can screw you.

5. Outcome of the vote by the US House of Representatives on nuke deal should also be known before the Indian markets open on Monday.

The problem with the markets as of now is No one knows which bank which FII is the next on the block.Fii to FII trades do give a hint to an investors.Bulls are scared to death before punching Buy orders.The open Interest of the FNO positions show the same.

I will say go for safe stocks or go for Gold bees for coming 6 months if you cannot time the markets.As the consolidation phase is expected to be that much long.Its peculiar but as of now the MACD of nifty is not giving a sell signal.With low volumes in Nifty one should trade cautiously

Broad support levels:-3911-3800-Below 3800 bears on free run.

Resistance levels 4116,4281