a closing below 2836 today would mean that nifty will target 2757-2658, with a SL of 2920 on positional basis.
yesterday, nifty faced resistence at the higher trendline, so i expect some downside in the comming week.
if closes below 2836 today, i will carry my shorts with 2920 sl
Thursday, December 11, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 11th DEC
Hello friends, after this long break, i m gonna update my blog daily now on with the imp nifty levels.
Nifty has given a vertical upmove, and its difficult to take a positional view till a dip comes.
resistence now at 3028-3047.further for intraday support exists at 2915-2887.
i would strictly advise traders to keep their trades to intraday only, and yes, positional shorts is not really option right now, so please avoid it.
Nifty has given a vertical upmove, and its difficult to take a positional view till a dip comes.
resistence now at 3028-3047.further for intraday support exists at 2915-2887.
i would strictly advise traders to keep their trades to intraday only, and yes, positional shorts is not really option right now, so please avoid it.
Sunday, December 7, 2008
Weekly Updates-08.12.08- Who will be stimulated by the Fiscal stimulus of G.O.I ?
Dear Friends,
The alternative to the classical theory proposed way back in 1936 by the British economist John Maynard Keynes in his book.” The General theory of Employment, Interest and Money." After the Great depression Keynes proposed a new way to analyze the economy, which he presented as an alternative to classical theory. He proposed that low aggregate demand is responsible for the low income and high unemployment that characterize economic downturns, the one I am seeing in current situation.
The relevance of the above post is prominent in the current situation. What most of the Federal governments and the Third world countries are doing is trying to expand aggregate demand by the help of rate cuts and fiscal stimulus packages. A combination of monetary and fiscal policy seems to be the only viable option that the policy makers can opt for in current situation. Rbi has reduced repo and reverse repo rates by 100 bps. There are more rate cuts coming in the near future then ever before. The million-dollar question remains unanswered will it create demand in a recessionary environment. Do remember as per Keynesian theory the aggregate demand needs to expand for the economy to keep growing.
The IIP numbers which will be announced ahead in the week might be negative to marginally positive in nature. Traders should note that the stimulus package might simply disappoint if the value of the same is insignificant in nature. It might be a cosmetic setup to make people believe that enough is being done to stimulate the Industry in the backdrop of the IIP numbers.
Crude oil prices have fallen more then 70% from its all time highs. Is crude heading the way it did in the 1970,s. I have no idea but the charts suggest the same. Will it head the way Jute industry moved in past. The government of India to generate employment now supports the Indian Jute industry. I have no idea on the same but a good number of oil fields are now operating below their marginal cost of production. Shorts to watch out will be in large cap stocks. There is a report on The Economic Times Edition of 6th December that Reliance industry is seeing negative margins in some of its products. Classically the demand supply theory will help in price adjustment over the Long term.
The Fiscal stimulus package by the Government of India has not been announced as of now. I believe that one should see the minute details of the same. Is the government trying to increase the aggregate demand or is it trying to simply stimulate the economy using a cosmetic setup of excise duty cuts and export incentives.
In Nifty we are simply seeing a consolidation since three weeks. With consolidation there is a converging triangle visible in the same. Downward Breakdown signal for the same will be received if 2570 is broken, Further break of 2500 will confirm the same. At 2570 one should exit longs and a closing below 2500 will indicate fresh shorts. At the same time a closing above 2835 will indicate is broken Upward. A move beyond 2940 will confirm the same. Election results on 8th of December will be one more indicator mentioned in previous week.
The alternative to the classical theory proposed way back in 1936 by the British economist John Maynard Keynes in his book.” The General theory of Employment, Interest and Money." After the Great depression Keynes proposed a new way to analyze the economy, which he presented as an alternative to classical theory. He proposed that low aggregate demand is responsible for the low income and high unemployment that characterize economic downturns, the one I am seeing in current situation.
The relevance of the above post is prominent in the current situation. What most of the Federal governments and the Third world countries are doing is trying to expand aggregate demand by the help of rate cuts and fiscal stimulus packages. A combination of monetary and fiscal policy seems to be the only viable option that the policy makers can opt for in current situation. Rbi has reduced repo and reverse repo rates by 100 bps. There are more rate cuts coming in the near future then ever before. The million-dollar question remains unanswered will it create demand in a recessionary environment. Do remember as per Keynesian theory the aggregate demand needs to expand for the economy to keep growing.
The IIP numbers which will be announced ahead in the week might be negative to marginally positive in nature. Traders should note that the stimulus package might simply disappoint if the value of the same is insignificant in nature. It might be a cosmetic setup to make people believe that enough is being done to stimulate the Industry in the backdrop of the IIP numbers.
Crude oil prices have fallen more then 70% from its all time highs. Is crude heading the way it did in the 1970,s. I have no idea but the charts suggest the same. Will it head the way Jute industry moved in past. The government of India to generate employment now supports the Indian Jute industry. I have no idea on the same but a good number of oil fields are now operating below their marginal cost of production. Shorts to watch out will be in large cap stocks. There is a report on The Economic Times Edition of 6th December that Reliance industry is seeing negative margins in some of its products. Classically the demand supply theory will help in price adjustment over the Long term.
The Fiscal stimulus package by the Government of India has not been announced as of now. I believe that one should see the minute details of the same. Is the government trying to increase the aggregate demand or is it trying to simply stimulate the economy using a cosmetic setup of excise duty cuts and export incentives.
In Nifty we are simply seeing a consolidation since three weeks. With consolidation there is a converging triangle visible in the same. Downward Breakdown signal for the same will be received if 2570 is broken, Further break of 2500 will confirm the same. At 2570 one should exit longs and a closing below 2500 will indicate fresh shorts. At the same time a closing above 2835 will indicate is broken Upward. A move beyond 2940 will confirm the same. Election results on 8th of December will be one more indicator mentioned in previous week.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 4th DEC
Nifty EOD chart says, i am highly confused and dunno where to go :-D.
nifty is on a downtrend, but i am surprised to see how it is reluctant to fall.
every dip is being bought into, and shorts are not at all comfortable.
now in terms of levels, till nifty is below 2755, it will be on a downtrend, and if closes above 2755, may quickly go to 29xx, where it will give a good shorting oppurtunity :-).
for intraday today, below 2655, nifty is weak and may see 2552 levels, however if crosses 2655, may blast to 2680-2697 levels.
a closing below 2655 will be considered as weak.
i personally feel, nifty may give a sudden upmove before it resumes its downtrend again.
nifty is on a downtrend, but i am surprised to see how it is reluctant to fall.
every dip is being bought into, and shorts are not at all comfortable.
now in terms of levels, till nifty is below 2755, it will be on a downtrend, and if closes above 2755, may quickly go to 29xx, where it will give a good shorting oppurtunity :-).
for intraday today, below 2655, nifty is weak and may see 2552 levels, however if crosses 2655, may blast to 2680-2697 levels.
a closing below 2655 will be considered as weak.
i personally feel, nifty may give a sudden upmove before it resumes its downtrend again.
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Weekly Updates-1.12.08- What If Bjp wins the assembly elections ?
Dear Friends,
Before I begin my Nifty views for the forthcoming week, I would like to start by giving my share of tributes to our brave army and police officers. Not only the ones who lost there lives but also the ones who made the Operation cyclone a success. To be truthful I don’t expect much on the terror front from our Impotent central government. One can say that the words are limited for one to express his disapproval for the current Central government. As a trader who looks for opportunity in every news Good or bad one can conclude that the days in office of this government in its present form is limited. Instead of inviting the ISI chief to the country the government should have formulated stricter laws and had implemented the same. It’s insane under current circumstances to see the Old man repeating his answering machine after every attack. Now the reason why I said we should seek for opportunity in every circumstance is that the probability of the NDA coming back to the power has increased considerably. Unless the UPA and the BSP decide to come together again along with the Left parties there is a dim chance for our Prime Minister Mr Manmohan Singh to be back at the helm.If the NDA is able to maintain its grip over Chattisgarh,Madhya pradesh and Rajasthan and at the same time capture Delhi from the INC,we might see a rally in the Indian indices.
There is a Golden rule which says that market doesn’t like uncertainty and the same rule mentions that the market rewards certainty. Watch for the days when the results will be out. If there is a consensus on either side one will make money by selling the News and vice versa. Technically the resistance in Nifty is at 20dma at 2837.Above 20dma the next resistance is at 50dma at 3211. These levels are in a broader sense. Macd has given a positive divergence in the chart. Rsi at 43 is also not in a SELL zone. One should tread cautiously on either side in the markets.
The Fii’s Figures for Friday was on a Buy side of 168 crs. Traders should remember that one shouldn’t read much from the figures on a settlement day. There will be selling based on Hedge fund redemption in December. Again this is a consensus now and markets seldom moves on the same. I will personally be trading using the options route on a positional basis with very less leverage. Traders who referred my earlier posts on Suzlon , Unitech and Gvk pil should have profited by not getting caught in the falling Knife. Anyone who bought Unitech in last 30 months would be on a notional loss. On march 1 2006Unitech was at 13.35 odd levels. It is the next major sustainable support for the stock. If it is broken stock might head to 5-7 levels. This is the technical view. At the same time what else can be said fundamentally about a company who is not clarifying on market rumors about sell of its own office.Truly the Unitech’s ,Parasvnaths,purvankaras,Sobha’s,Omaxe and the Brigade enterprise have become the Pentamedia and the Hfcl of 2008.Its early days and I might be wrong as usual but I am writing what my charts are narrating me. Some of them will bounce in the years to come and some will register themselves in the Long list of companies which once were traded in the stock exchange.The companies have started to pass on the decline in the raw material prices to the customers.Paints prices have dropped by 7-10% in past 7 days.In coming weeks same will be seen in Lubricants and other crude/petrochemical based producers.
Before I begin my Nifty views for the forthcoming week, I would like to start by giving my share of tributes to our brave army and police officers. Not only the ones who lost there lives but also the ones who made the Operation cyclone a success. To be truthful I don’t expect much on the terror front from our Impotent central government. One can say that the words are limited for one to express his disapproval for the current Central government. As a trader who looks for opportunity in every news Good or bad one can conclude that the days in office of this government in its present form is limited. Instead of inviting the ISI chief to the country the government should have formulated stricter laws and had implemented the same. It’s insane under current circumstances to see the Old man repeating his answering machine after every attack. Now the reason why I said we should seek for opportunity in every circumstance is that the probability of the NDA coming back to the power has increased considerably. Unless the UPA and the BSP decide to come together again along with the Left parties there is a dim chance for our Prime Minister Mr Manmohan Singh to be back at the helm.If the NDA is able to maintain its grip over Chattisgarh,Madhya pradesh and Rajasthan and at the same time capture Delhi from the INC,we might see a rally in the Indian indices.
There is a Golden rule which says that market doesn’t like uncertainty and the same rule mentions that the market rewards certainty. Watch for the days when the results will be out. If there is a consensus on either side one will make money by selling the News and vice versa. Technically the resistance in Nifty is at 20dma at 2837.Above 20dma the next resistance is at 50dma at 3211. These levels are in a broader sense. Macd has given a positive divergence in the chart. Rsi at 43 is also not in a SELL zone. One should tread cautiously on either side in the markets.
The Fii’s Figures for Friday was on a Buy side of 168 crs. Traders should remember that one shouldn’t read much from the figures on a settlement day. There will be selling based on Hedge fund redemption in December. Again this is a consensus now and markets seldom moves on the same. I will personally be trading using the options route on a positional basis with very less leverage. Traders who referred my earlier posts on Suzlon , Unitech and Gvk pil should have profited by not getting caught in the falling Knife. Anyone who bought Unitech in last 30 months would be on a notional loss. On march 1 2006Unitech was at 13.35 odd levels. It is the next major sustainable support for the stock. If it is broken stock might head to 5-7 levels. This is the technical view. At the same time what else can be said fundamentally about a company who is not clarifying on market rumors about sell of its own office.Truly the Unitech’s ,Parasvnaths,purvankaras,Sobha’s,Omaxe and the Brigade enterprise have become the Pentamedia and the Hfcl of 2008.Its early days and I might be wrong as usual but I am writing what my charts are narrating me. Some of them will bounce in the years to come and some will register themselves in the Long list of companies which once were traded in the stock exchange.The companies have started to pass on the decline in the raw material prices to the customers.Paints prices have dropped by 7-10% in past 7 days.In coming weeks same will be seen in Lubricants and other crude/petrochemical based producers.
Thursday, November 27, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 28TH NOV
aroung 2800-2834 is a very dangerous zone for nifty a cross over of 2834 would mean nifty crossing a resistence trendline thats haunting the bulls since aug-sept 2008.
i wouldnt hold overnight longs till nifty closes above 2834. this time if nifty doesnt sustain 2800 levels, may fall towards 2490 levels.
For intraday, it will be weak below 2755 levels, and trading below it, may see 2707 levels.
if sustains above 2755, will hit 2800 levels.
again will be a highly volatile day.
i wouldnt hold overnight longs till nifty closes above 2834. this time if nifty doesnt sustain 2800 levels, may fall towards 2490 levels.
For intraday, it will be weak below 2755 levels, and trading below it, may see 2707 levels.
if sustains above 2755, will hit 2800 levels.
again will be a highly volatile day.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Nov 28
: Attn Members:
Members are requested to note that there shall be no Trading today. F&O contracts shall expire on 28 November 2008 instead of today. The settlements scheduled for today stands postponed to tomorrow.
Members are requested to note that there shall be no Trading today. F&O contracts shall expire on 28 November 2008 instead of today. The settlements scheduled for today stands postponed to tomorrow.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 26TH NOV
We waited to short above 2800, but that never happened and nifty kept on falling.
for intraday, nifty will be weak below 2635, and another closing below 2655 may take nifty to 2541-2527 levels
only if trades above 2655 may go on to hit 2750 levels again.
for intraday, nifty will be weak below 2635, and another closing below 2655 may take nifty to 2541-2527 levels
only if trades above 2655 may go on to hit 2750 levels again.
Monday, November 24, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 25th NOV
though there is huge intraday volatility, nifty is still bullish, and the next fall will come only after market sees close to 2838 levels.
my gut feel is ( 85% sure) that market wont cross 2838 on closing basis, however gut feel shud never be trusted, and we will trade with SL only .
i will definately take short position in the range of 2800-2840 levels, and hold with SL above 2840 on closing basis.
i am not saying that we will fall heavily from those levels, but it can surely give 150-200 points in positional trade.
today for intraday, supp is at 2688 and resistence around 2770-2786 levels
my gut feel is ( 85% sure) that market wont cross 2838 on closing basis, however gut feel shud never be trusted, and we will trade with SL only .
i will definately take short position in the range of 2800-2840 levels, and hold with SL above 2840 on closing basis.
i am not saying that we will fall heavily from those levels, but it can surely give 150-200 points in positional trade.
today for intraday, supp is at 2688 and resistence around 2770-2786 levels
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