Weekly Updates-1.12.08- What If Bjp wins the assembly elections ?

Dear Friends,
Before I begin my Nifty views for the forthcoming week, I would like to start by giving my share of tributes to our brave army and police officers. Not only the ones who lost there lives but also the ones who made the Operation cyclone a success. To be truthful I don’t expect much on the terror front from our Impotent central government. One can say that the words are limited for one to express his disapproval for the current Central government. As a trader who looks for opportunity in every news Good or bad one can conclude that the days in office of this government in its present form is limited. Instead of inviting the ISI chief to the country the government should have formulated stricter laws and had implemented the same. It’s insane under current circumstances to see the Old man repeating his answering machine after every attack. Now the reason why I said we should seek for opportunity in every circumstance is that the probability of the NDA coming back to the power has increased considerably. Unless the UPA and the BSP decide to come together again along with the Left parties there is a dim chance for our Prime Minister Mr Manmohan Singh to be back at the helm.If the NDA is able to maintain its grip over Chattisgarh,Madhya pradesh and Rajasthan and at the same time capture Delhi from the INC,we might see a rally in the Indian indices.
There is a Golden rule which says that market doesn’t like uncertainty and the same rule mentions that the market rewards certainty. Watch for the days when the results will be out. If there is a consensus on either side one will make money by selling the News and vice versa. Technically the resistance in Nifty is at 20dma at 2837.Above 20dma the next resistance is at 50dma at 3211. These levels are in a broader sense. Macd has given a positive divergence in the chart. Rsi at 43 is also not in a SELL zone. One should tread cautiously on either side in the markets.
The Fii’s Figures for Friday was on a Buy side of 168 crs. Traders should remember that one shouldn’t read much from the figures on a settlement day. There will be selling based on Hedge fund redemption in December. Again this is a consensus now and markets seldom moves on the same. I will personally be trading using the options route on a positional basis with very less leverage. Traders who referred my earlier posts on Suzlon , Unitech and Gvk pil should have profited by not getting caught in the falling Knife. Anyone who bought Unitech in last 30 months would be on a notional loss. On march 1 2006Unitech was at 13.35 odd levels. It is the next major sustainable support for the stock. If it is broken stock might head to 5-7 levels. This is the technical view. At the same time what else can be said fundamentally about a company who is not clarifying on market rumors about sell of its own office.Truly the Unitech’s ,Parasvnaths,purvankaras,Sobha’s,Omaxe and the Brigade enterprise have become the Pentamedia and the Hfcl of 2008.Its early days and I might be wrong as usual but I am writing what my charts are narrating me. Some of them will bounce in the years to come and some will register themselves in the Long list of companies which once were traded in the stock exchange.The companies have started to pass on the decline in the raw material prices to the customers.Paints prices have dropped by 7-10% in past 7 days.In coming weeks same will be seen in Lubricants and other crude/petrochemical based producers.