NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 31st OCT

Nifty will be very weak if breaks 2680 levels, may see 2624-2585.


if sustains above 2710, could go on to hit 2805 levels.


will again be very volatile today, so trade with strict SL, and keep booking small profits.


closing above 2745 will be very good for the market in comming week, and closing below 2680, may show some weakness.

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 29th OCT

Nifty fut shows a tgt of 2870 crossing 2745. I think nifty may soon see 2870, but if it will cross of not - i have no idea on that.one thing for sure, 

i will try some shorts when nifty is close to 2870 with a sl above it, as this major upmove will be too for a bear market to handle. 

not able to close above 2870 , it may again resume its downward journey in next few sessions.for intraday, 2745 will be an imp level to watch. 

if we get a big gap up, there could be heavy shorts roll over, so avoid longs in a big gap up.also being the expiry day, we will see high volatility for sure.

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 27th OCT

Well, daily the lower side target gets exhausted, and we keep falling.

after analysing the Long term charts, i feel that 2380 spot is the level,which will hold in this down fall, and nifty MIGHT MIGHT MIGHT not break this level.

but yes, nifty is defntly expected to go there, before any big upmove can come.well, can it happen today????

for intraday crossing 2650, nifty will hit 2693 atleast.below 2650, thr is no hopes, and nifty may tgt 2380 levels

views-Updates on the weekly note begining 27.10.08

Dear Friends,
There is some political gupshup which i have missed in my weekly review.Will request traders to better wait and watch.I don't change my views frequently but i will be closely watching political news now.We at India have a high degree of negative correlation with political stability.True there is a genuine support at 2380,I have no idea what will happen post the bounce from the same support.Kindly use higher levels to shuffle the folio instead of fresh buying now.
Regards

Muharat picks-Diwali to Diwali

Muharat picks-Vikram samvat 2065

Only buy if you can hold for 1 full year 

Titan industry growth story intact.
Balmer lawrie- divd 17.50 rs cmp 230
Hind oil exploration-Gas earnings to start next year
Albert david. 3 rs dividend cmp 41

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 24th OCT

Comming back to nifty, 2780 levels looks an easy tgt, dont try to catch the bottom, and any longs should be only restricted to intraday only.

For intraday today, we may see 2833, and if things get worse, 2782 is also in sight.

for any longs, we will have to watch in intraday only, so cant give any levels.

3012, 3078 are the resistence levels

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 22nd OCT

For intraday, nifty weak below 3210, may see 3170.

now 3167 is a very imp level for the rest of the week, and closing below it will be bad for the bulls.

yestrday, nifty gave a breakout, but couldnt sustain it, so bulls have to be a bit cautious. 


However we are also making higher bottoms and higher tops, so signals are mixed.

Crossing 3266, nifty may go to hit 3309-3336, please trade with strict SL

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 21st OCT

Nifty may open around 3210 levels, and for any upmove, it has to sustain above 3210.

holding 3210 we may see 3309-3355 ,where nifty will face strong resistence.

below 3210, nifty may slide to 3171-3146 levels for the day.

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 20th OCT

For intraday nifty might get support around the lower trend line that u see in the chart which is around 3000 levels breaking that, next levels are 2934-2863

Now 2863 is an area where nifty fut has long term support, and if that is also broken, nxt levels are 2672-2590.

well these are just the support levels on the downside, and and all we can do is just wait and watch, whr nifty takes support.

If nifty reverses and moves up, thn 3165 will be a level to watch closely.

Closing above 3165 will give some hopes of recovery in comming days

Week starting 20.10.08 .Why is only India Crashing..

Dear Friends,
After coverage in Live Mint(A Wall street Journal-Hindustan time pink paper) We has been covered in an 80 Years old Tamil based magazine "nanayaam vikatan".It has a coverage of 400000+ readers.We thank all our patrons for our continued success. Another bearish week passed by in "Halal eh dalal" street.Week on week Nifty is down 204 points.But the problem is that markets were up 211 points on Monday and on Tuesday it made a high of 3648.From a high of 3648 we made a low of 3047 on Friday.The momentum seen on the downside has not been by traders here for last 6 odd years.Many Investors have gone belly up out here in India by following the crowd.Portfolio size of many well known investors have contracted by more then 50%.I believe 50-65% portfolio contraction is normal in this bearish trend and the problem will arise if your folio is down more then 70%.To build a portfolio which is down more then 80% will be a problem and a real big one.I will suggest some switch overs which investors can do in there long term portfolio.I will also try and analyze the current status of almost all of our long term calls.At the same time I have a request for those investors in whose folio stocks have fallen by 80-90%.Its not time to panic.There are some old Golden words which are relevant even now.One of them being "If You want to panic,Panic early." If you believe that the company will survive for coming ten years then there is no point selling the same now at 10% of your cost.
I have been receiving a number of queries from tensed investors throughout the past week.I strongly believe that many brokers out here in India suffer from what i call the effect of past bullish virus.I wont name people but stocks like satyam computer,Infosys tech,Sesa Goa,Siemens and many many more still receive a Buy recommendation.The only point is that the target price is getting reduced.In january at 1700 Infosys had a Buy recommendation with a Traget price of 2100 at 1400 in April it was a Buy with a target price of 2400,at 1800 in July it was again a Buy with Tp of 2200.and last week i saw the same set of reports with target price of 1900 for infosys at 1200 odd levels.People have vested interest in brokerage firms for taking out Buy reports.Same is not the case with overseas investors.Hence we get a number of sell calls from foreign brokerages based in India.I wont like the same to be said about TSR.We dont carry monthly or quarterly review on our long term picks as we have one simple suggestion for Long term picks.Exit quantity equivalent to your cost at target 1.Will try and review most of our long term picks in this edition.

TANLA SOLUTIONS:
Initiated coverage at 272.followed up at 470. target was 600,1000.High was 850 and cmp is 162(81 rs 1 f.v) Hold the remaining stock with long term view.Current pe is approx 4.

IND BANK MERCHANTS
Initiated at 14.T.P of 21,24.High was 52.
Hold the remaining qty with long term view as Divd last year was 1.5 rs per share.Dont add it now .

Nile Limited: Recommended at 95 target was 135.stock saw 3XX after the Buy call.Cmp is 60. stock can be added for the dividend in very small qty.

ANDREW YULE: TARGET WAS ACHIEVED AND EXIT WAS GIVEN.DONT ENTER NOW.

SAME IS CASE WITH PSI DATA SYSTEM,JM FINANCIAL S,JAYASWAL NECO,MSP STEEL AND POWER,Il&fs investment managers,Hfcl,Tide water,Karutari network,

HIMALYA INTL,RATHI UDYOG,STC INDIA,Gmdc,Sicagen have fallen good percentage along with bear market moves.We don't believe in averages hence kindly don't average anyone of them.

Forbes and co.. can still be bought for long term holding at cmp.


Now coming to the markets to be truthful whenever i try and predict the bottom my hands get burned.I have been stopped out on two previous occasions in last six month while predicting a bottom.I have tried to project my analysis using the previous bear runs after the DOT.com bubble.But the correlation should not be made with previous bear run now.To be truthful there is an increasing belief in the markets that bear moves bottom out after 50-55% correction from the Top.I have always maintained and i still maintain i wont take positional longs in Nifty till stocks like DLF,UNITECH and Rel power are included in Nifty.Once they are thrown out Nifty Bees is an ideal Long term Buy with low holding costs.Why I wont like to have 100% belief in analyzing markets with the help of previous bear runs is that both the known Indian bear markets were an outcome of scams of Harshad mehta and ketan parekh fame. This Bear market is not similar as it has been an outcome of excesses of global liquidity and low interest rate.I dont know where the bottom is but i do know where the supports are and will use the Multi year supports for analyzing the same now.
To be truthful there was a Head and Shoulder in Sensex at 15000 odd levels with head at 21000 odd levels.But i had not anticipated in the wildest of my dream that we will be so near to the lower target of 9200 of the same.Now when we are near to the same let me try and analyze the outcome from here on fearlessly.I had mentioned three stocks for buying with 3-4 months view in mid week review on 16th october.I will advise traders to hold on to them.Titan has given an odd 17% recovery from those levels.Now coming to nifty as i have mentioned before we will have to refer to the Multi year supports to analyze the situation.2878 and 2596 are the next support for the Nifty.With Ril plummeting every day i wont try and find the bottom.Will request you to do the same.
I will advise some switchover in certain stocks and certain sectors.If my view is correct kindly leave a thanks note on the website www.niftyviews.com and if it is wrong kindly dont blame me as the views is an unbiased and the best possible view as of now.

STOCKS VIEW ARE OF LONG TERM NATURE:-

Ifci:-There is a joke doing rounds in market that there was a time when Morgan stanley along with sterlite was bidding for IFCI.Its time for Ifci to Bid for morgan stanley now.To be truthful even if a Bid is called now.ifci wont be valued above 45-50.Outcome:Convert ifci holding in IDFC.True idfc can fall more but it will also pullback whenever the bull market starts.

ISPAT ind: convert to sail before you burn your hands more.

Core projects:convert to ETC NETWORK

Sunflag,vikash metal: convert to sail,jsw steel

REL INFRA:convert to abb,tata power

ADLABS: convert to utv.Utv futs are trading at 350

TVS MOTORS:CONVERT TO ASHOK LEYLAND AND HERO HONDA.

ABAN : CONVERT TO RIL

RPL: CONVERT TO RIL( EVEN IF IT FALLS TO 1200 OR TO 3 DIGITS)

WWIL:CONVERT TO DISH TV.

TTML:convert to Idea.

SEL MCL: EXIT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE

RESURGERE MINES: EXIT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE

SANDUR MANGANESE: CONVERT TO SESA GOA.

My simple request to all boarders kindly dont loose hope in equity as an asset class.It is great in Long term and the concept of long term varies from person to person.For me Long term is something till I retire.Dont loose Hope.In past Indian markets have been the last one to breakdown,I have no idea if this is also one of those breakdowns.The peculiar thing i have personally noticed in Fridays trade is that most of the institutional heavy weight stocks have been sold.Specifically banking stocks like SBI,NTPC,PNB and some more heavy weights have broken important support levels.If these stocks break down further momentum on downside will only accelerate.The Only hope out here is the macd divergence as of now.We have fallen in October series from 4111 to 3074 yesterday if we fall more we will see forced liquidation of the last standing bull out over here. If there is no recovery the situation will only be grave.



Nifty support,2989-2878-25xx

Nifty resistance-3170-3269

NIFTY SHD MAKE IT TO 2995 TARGET ZONE...A CLOSE BELOW THAT WILL TAKE IT TO 2860-75 RANGE....

My View

Dear friends,
Its a mid week review.My views are generally on weekly basis but extraordinary time requires mid week review.There is a consensus that we will go down.For me My downside target is nearing as of now.If we panic more we might see a 29XX.Moreover even if one more US bank goes bust which is unlikely we might see at max 25XX.Its only 20% lower from current valuations.Moreover government is now actively trying to stabilize markets.With panic at its peak.I wont mind buying some stocks now.I have always mantained that i dont like Nifty till it includes stocks like DLF and Unitech.At the same time i am quite positive on ICICI bank now as the stock has made a higher bottom.My sl will be at 325 for the trade with potential target of 465 and 530 on upside.Its for bravehearts only.I am also positive on two of RJ picks hindoilexp and Titan.Holding period wont be less then 3-4 months.

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 17th OCT

Nifty looks great for an upmove only till 3250 is held, it can hit 3445-3490 levels for the day.

breaking 3250, weakness will set in, tgts are 3225-3195

now in the chart, if u see, we may go close to the upper trendline, and hit around 3457 levels before we continue with the downward jouney again. 

till we breakout of the upper trendline, we may fall hard anytime, play smart.

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 16th OCT

Breaking 3216, now i see a tgt of 3076. we just wait for a pull back to go short, but the market doesnt wait, it just keeps falling.

Markets may open around 3229 today, if pulls back from there, we may see an upmove for the day, however if breaks thn it will also break the previous low of 3216 and may head towards 3076.

if a new low is not made today, thn we will pull back to 3390 levels before we can fall again.


If u see the 2 black lines on my chart forming a downward channel, the lower line is arnd 3076 which looks like a definate tgt

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 15th OCT

Nifty may open around 3472 levels, and is really weak below 3472 fut. 

Trading below 3472, nifty may fall to 3426-3412.

recovery if any can only be possibe if 3472 is crossed.

till then every rise is a short for the day.

Closing below 3472 would give a target of 3335 in this week

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 14th OCT

Nifty may open around 3640 levels for intraday , resistence being at 3641 levels, above this level, nxt targets are 3667-3712 where one should be very cautious about longs.


3750 is a level which may not cross in short term and positional traders may look to short at those levels.


Just a word of caution for those over bullish traders, today is just the 2nd day that we will be trading after making a yearly low, and this is just a technical bounce. so dont forget to book profits as and when you get them.

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 13th OCT

Last week i had mentioned that "dow had made a double bottom around 10,260, and if broken can creat HAVOC in the world markets", and yes thats exctly what we saw last week. Now dow has support around 7450 levels, thats apprx 1000 points from here. for any positive moves, dow has to close above 8881, which may bring in a relief rally.


For Nifty, it looks like it got support at one of its medium term trendline which may or may not hold.as of now if nifty holds friday's low of 3216, it can pull back to 3389-3517-3610 levels for the week, breaking it would mean 2890 on the cards. Closing above 3389 may quickly take nifty to 3517 levels


Now for intraday, again supp around 3216, if broken, may see 3140 levels.if 3216 is held, nifty may pull up to 3335-3389 levels, where it will face strong resistence.

Week starting 13.10.08 .India Gate is crashing down

Dear Friends,
Unusual days,Unusual events,unusual outcomes and usual speeches.I would like to note two announcements which we hear almost every alternate day now.'Indian economy is on a sound wicket."-Its clean Bold."There is no problem in Indian banking system and all banks are well capitalized."-Why is ICICI BANK falling everyday."Our GDP will grow at 8%."-IIP Numbers are painting a different picture.
All Icici bank depositors Got a sms from the bank today stating"Your deposits with Icici bank is safe.Your bank is well capitalized with good liquidity.Please do not listen to baseless rumors."My only question is we all know that the bank is well capitalized with the FPO at 940 odd bucks.We all also know that the deposits in India are all safe in any Private or Public sector bank.We all know all deposits in ICICI bank is safe as there is nothing wrong in Indian banks.Why dont we hear about the exact exposure to each commercial paper of the foreign branch in each institution.Till the time we hear about the same the stock might be beaten down mercilessly.Even yesterday when the stock tanked 20+% points there was 26% delivery volume(38.60 lakhs) and surprisingly there was an addition of open interest at 33.24Lakhs.If it was a bear run and everything was fine with the balance sheet of the bank then the delivery volumes should have been at lower then 10% and open interest should have reduced.Since nothing happened there is surely fire somewhere.I have no idea on the balance sheet of icici bank and its subsidiaries but yes the stock market knows more then what I or you do.We might see an upmove in ICICI post its results are announced.One should be cautious in shorting the stock near to its Book value.
Markets react before the data is made public.We were hearing till yesterday that Indian economy is on a strong footing.We will survive the sub prime mess.Our industrial production is strong.After the announcement of the IIP data for the first time in recent history i heard about the term recession in Indian context.Markets have cracked 50% when people were painting a rosy picture for the economy and now at 3200 odd levels people are talking about an industrial recession.I will again say markets react before the actual news is out.Will like to add that IIP numbers will pick up as raw material prices have fallen considerably in recent days.
Core projects tanked 43% in trades yesterday.Stock is a product of the Bull market which might be killed in a bear phase.We had a short call in weekly positional trades only this week in it.Although our targets were not that low in the stock.Stock can see 100-70 odd levels in coming days.All products of the bull market are being consumed by the bears to enhance there MTM margins.The problem now is that instead of 12 or 24 months charts.We have to refer 120 months chart to analyze Multi year supports for the stock.For example Rel capital next support is at 600-410.Traders can use any rise to 900 to short the stock sl will be at 949.The problem now is that there is a consensus for a 20-25% pull back.Markets generally move in such a way to cause maximum pain to the consensus.As i have previously quoted i am dead scared to Buy as a Bull. I will like to give an example with a stock i have been trading in 4 years now.Oswal chemicals-25-30 used to be a yearly support level.Company is fundamentally good with net cash of more then 50 rs per share in Books and some real estate investments on its own land.Five days back stock was at 18 odd levels.A value buying time for me.Next day stock cracked to 16.70.I didnt enter seeing Nifty breakdown.very next day oswal chemical cracked to 14.75. and on yesterday to 12 odd levels.In short term there is no impact of fundamentals.Company can easily rise to 14 in coming days but supply will be from everyone who bought earlier.Markets move on supply and demand principle.So I wont enter till i am comfortable with nifty stability

Rbi withdraws 10000 crs of Bond auction.My only question did Rbi had any other option to ease liquidity.With call rates at 18-22% and banks offering 15% in 15 days deposit we are clearly heading for tough times.If you say things will improve tomorrow.get up from your dream and be awake.We might see small bounces but sadly none of them will sustain more then 3 days and if it does then it might be one of those bear market squeeze which will screw bears who only know positional shorts.Live in truth rest is your own wish.MACD indicates bottom is not yet visible.Oversold Rsi will provide some 1-2 days rallies were people will do value buying.

For all investors invest in Fixed deposits only in SBI till we see Fii sell figures reduce.It was at 2513 crs yesterday.The highest i have noticed in recent days.And if you still want to be in the vicious circle of Buy at Top and average at every downside and panic near to the bottom and then blame the markets I have nothing to say.Have a profitable week.

At the time of writing this article i have zero positions in Nifty or any other derivative instruments.I intend to limit my trading to Intraday in coming weeks.

No support is sacred in a BEAR MARKET.

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 10TH OCT

3243 could be the next low, but long term support only at 2900 levels now, cant say anything else, and we have to see what can be done in intraday during markets

NIFTY INTRA DAY LEVELS FOR 8th OCT, 2008

Till we see a close above 3729( A VERY IMP LEVEL FOR ANY TREND REVERSAL),

nifty will always be in a danger to fall more and more.

in my chart, if u notice a black line, thts the last hope for markets which crosses around 3515 fut levels.

hopefully this will hold, else 3400 can come very easily.

for intraday, breaking 3515, we may see 3474-3426 levels.

crossing above 3654, nifty may hit 3729 levels.

still taking a positional view will be very difficult on the markets as all SL will be very far off.

So try and trade intraday, and avoid carrying any positions

NIFTY INTRA DAY LEVELS FOR 7th OCT, 2008

The good news first - Dow (US markets) has seen double bottom around 10,260, and i expect a bounce up to 10,600- 10,800-11,046 levels , which could come in this week.

i strongly feel that this double bottom of 10,260 will hold for sometime, and only some very bad news can break it, and if broken, it can lead to a selloff in global markets.

So nifty closing above 3894, may rally up to 4109-4138 in this week.


Now for Intraday, Nifty still looks weak on charts and trading below 3830 it may fall to 3777-3749 levels.

if trades above 3868, nifty will get a lot of strenght and may go up to 3896- 3925 levels

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 06 OCT, 2008

The good news first - Dow (US markets) has seen double bottom around 10,260, and i expect a bounce up to 10,600- 10,800-11,046 levels , which could come in this week.

i strongly feel that this double bottom of 10,260 will hold for sometime, and only some very bad news can break it, and if broken, it can lead to a selloff in global markets.

So nifty closing above 3894, may rally up to 4109-4138 in this week.


Now for Intraday, Nifty still looks weak on charts and trading below 3830 it may fall to 3777-3749 levels.

if trades above 3868, nifty will get a lot of strenght and may go up to 3896- 3925 levels

Stategy for the week starting 06th October 08

Its time for all of us to go back to Nursery schools.The Primary reason being that if you index the small cap stocks.If you make a comparison with the price level of the same stocks some years back.You might see that some stocks have given negative returns on the same time line.Some of the stocks in my coverage have also fallen like nine pins.The Old nursery rhyme that London Bridge is falling down seems so True in the Indian stock markets.To pinpoint the same msp steel(down 35%)(in last one month),jayaswal neco(down 44%),rathi steel(down 25%).Ion exchange(34%),forbes and com(5%),Ilfs investment managers (21%).There is surely some detrimental news flow in steel stocks but the same is true for almost any stock in the market.
As an European dealer rightly pointed out some days back that markets are "Long on asset and short on cash."Anything which is an asset for an investor is being sold off and when everything is being sold off the valuations take a back seat.No point talking about valuations when people see liquidity and start a sell off.Now coming back to markets,people might give lower levels of 3200 or anything.I will still say for me downside at 3800 seems limited.I am not positive at 4100 odd levels but i am not negative at 3800 odd levels.I am personally expecting that we might just a small panic selling on Monday or Tuesday and a smooth rise from those levels.I have no idea that Where will the rise take us as markets are following the random theory as of now.I can be correct on a broader market basis as levels can never be precise in a low volume market.
Million dollar question: what to Buy and when to Buy?My reply will be Buy oversold stocks with good fundamentals which might survive the bear run even if its in a cyclical industry.Also do note that there are 20% pull back in broader index from lows even in a Bear Market.No point shorting it @ lower levels on a positional basis.In the words of jesse livermore,My ideal trader in bear market.Market will bottom out when the index continues to falls but momentum stocks stop making new lows.If i consider real estate as momentum stocks for bears then markets might just be bottoming out.

Do remember I consider myself more as a Trader in a bear market and i love to capture every move.So Kindly be polite and dont blame me if I talk about shorts again at 4XXX levels for lower levels.At the same time if by chance you are carrying shorts do remember to book full profits below 3700 odd levels.

:)


Nifty support,3670,3710-

Nifty resistance-3931-3958-4095

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 3rd OCT

Nifty may open Around 3903, and charts shows next support around 3848-3802 levels only,

so dont stay long unless nifty is trading above 3903.


crossing 3920, nifty may move up to 3960 levels for intraday.


closing below 3903, dont dare to hold long positions