Week starting 20.10.08 .Why is only India Crashing..

Dear Friends,
After coverage in Live Mint(A Wall street Journal-Hindustan time pink paper) We has been covered in an 80 Years old Tamil based magazine "nanayaam vikatan".It has a coverage of 400000+ readers.We thank all our patrons for our continued success. Another bearish week passed by in "Halal eh dalal" street.Week on week Nifty is down 204 points.But the problem is that markets were up 211 points on Monday and on Tuesday it made a high of 3648.From a high of 3648 we made a low of 3047 on Friday.The momentum seen on the downside has not been by traders here for last 6 odd years.Many Investors have gone belly up out here in India by following the crowd.Portfolio size of many well known investors have contracted by more then 50%.I believe 50-65% portfolio contraction is normal in this bearish trend and the problem will arise if your folio is down more then 70%.To build a portfolio which is down more then 80% will be a problem and a real big one.I will suggest some switch overs which investors can do in there long term portfolio.I will also try and analyze the current status of almost all of our long term calls.At the same time I have a request for those investors in whose folio stocks have fallen by 80-90%.Its not time to panic.There are some old Golden words which are relevant even now.One of them being "If You want to panic,Panic early." If you believe that the company will survive for coming ten years then there is no point selling the same now at 10% of your cost.
I have been receiving a number of queries from tensed investors throughout the past week.I strongly believe that many brokers out here in India suffer from what i call the effect of past bullish virus.I wont name people but stocks like satyam computer,Infosys tech,Sesa Goa,Siemens and many many more still receive a Buy recommendation.The only point is that the target price is getting reduced.In january at 1700 Infosys had a Buy recommendation with a Traget price of 2100 at 1400 in April it was a Buy with a target price of 2400,at 1800 in July it was again a Buy with Tp of 2200.and last week i saw the same set of reports with target price of 1900 for infosys at 1200 odd levels.People have vested interest in brokerage firms for taking out Buy reports.Same is not the case with overseas investors.Hence we get a number of sell calls from foreign brokerages based in India.I wont like the same to be said about TSR.We dont carry monthly or quarterly review on our long term picks as we have one simple suggestion for Long term picks.Exit quantity equivalent to your cost at target 1.Will try and review most of our long term picks in this edition.

TANLA SOLUTIONS:
Initiated coverage at 272.followed up at 470. target was 600,1000.High was 850 and cmp is 162(81 rs 1 f.v) Hold the remaining stock with long term view.Current pe is approx 4.

IND BANK MERCHANTS
Initiated at 14.T.P of 21,24.High was 52.
Hold the remaining qty with long term view as Divd last year was 1.5 rs per share.Dont add it now .

Nile Limited: Recommended at 95 target was 135.stock saw 3XX after the Buy call.Cmp is 60. stock can be added for the dividend in very small qty.

ANDREW YULE: TARGET WAS ACHIEVED AND EXIT WAS GIVEN.DONT ENTER NOW.

SAME IS CASE WITH PSI DATA SYSTEM,JM FINANCIAL S,JAYASWAL NECO,MSP STEEL AND POWER,Il&fs investment managers,Hfcl,Tide water,Karutari network,

HIMALYA INTL,RATHI UDYOG,STC INDIA,Gmdc,Sicagen have fallen good percentage along with bear market moves.We don't believe in averages hence kindly don't average anyone of them.

Forbes and co.. can still be bought for long term holding at cmp.


Now coming to the markets to be truthful whenever i try and predict the bottom my hands get burned.I have been stopped out on two previous occasions in last six month while predicting a bottom.I have tried to project my analysis using the previous bear runs after the DOT.com bubble.But the correlation should not be made with previous bear run now.To be truthful there is an increasing belief in the markets that bear moves bottom out after 50-55% correction from the Top.I have always maintained and i still maintain i wont take positional longs in Nifty till stocks like DLF,UNITECH and Rel power are included in Nifty.Once they are thrown out Nifty Bees is an ideal Long term Buy with low holding costs.Why I wont like to have 100% belief in analyzing markets with the help of previous bear runs is that both the known Indian bear markets were an outcome of scams of Harshad mehta and ketan parekh fame. This Bear market is not similar as it has been an outcome of excesses of global liquidity and low interest rate.I dont know where the bottom is but i do know where the supports are and will use the Multi year supports for analyzing the same now.
To be truthful there was a Head and Shoulder in Sensex at 15000 odd levels with head at 21000 odd levels.But i had not anticipated in the wildest of my dream that we will be so near to the lower target of 9200 of the same.Now when we are near to the same let me try and analyze the outcome from here on fearlessly.I had mentioned three stocks for buying with 3-4 months view in mid week review on 16th october.I will advise traders to hold on to them.Titan has given an odd 17% recovery from those levels.Now coming to nifty as i have mentioned before we will have to refer to the Multi year supports to analyze the situation.2878 and 2596 are the next support for the Nifty.With Ril plummeting every day i wont try and find the bottom.Will request you to do the same.
I will advise some switchover in certain stocks and certain sectors.If my view is correct kindly leave a thanks note on the website www.niftyviews.com and if it is wrong kindly dont blame me as the views is an unbiased and the best possible view as of now.

STOCKS VIEW ARE OF LONG TERM NATURE:-

Ifci:-There is a joke doing rounds in market that there was a time when Morgan stanley along with sterlite was bidding for IFCI.Its time for Ifci to Bid for morgan stanley now.To be truthful even if a Bid is called now.ifci wont be valued above 45-50.Outcome:Convert ifci holding in IDFC.True idfc can fall more but it will also pullback whenever the bull market starts.

ISPAT ind: convert to sail before you burn your hands more.

Core projects:convert to ETC NETWORK

Sunflag,vikash metal: convert to sail,jsw steel

REL INFRA:convert to abb,tata power

ADLABS: convert to utv.Utv futs are trading at 350

TVS MOTORS:CONVERT TO ASHOK LEYLAND AND HERO HONDA.

ABAN : CONVERT TO RIL

RPL: CONVERT TO RIL( EVEN IF IT FALLS TO 1200 OR TO 3 DIGITS)

WWIL:CONVERT TO DISH TV.

TTML:convert to Idea.

SEL MCL: EXIT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE

RESURGERE MINES: EXIT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE

SANDUR MANGANESE: CONVERT TO SESA GOA.

My simple request to all boarders kindly dont loose hope in equity as an asset class.It is great in Long term and the concept of long term varies from person to person.For me Long term is something till I retire.Dont loose Hope.In past Indian markets have been the last one to breakdown,I have no idea if this is also one of those breakdowns.The peculiar thing i have personally noticed in Fridays trade is that most of the institutional heavy weight stocks have been sold.Specifically banking stocks like SBI,NTPC,PNB and some more heavy weights have broken important support levels.If these stocks break down further momentum on downside will only accelerate.The Only hope out here is the macd divergence as of now.We have fallen in October series from 4111 to 3074 yesterday if we fall more we will see forced liquidation of the last standing bull out over here. If there is no recovery the situation will only be grave.



Nifty support,2989-2878-25xx

Nifty resistance-3170-3269

NIFTY SHD MAKE IT TO 2995 TARGET ZONE...A CLOSE BELOW THAT WILL TAKE IT TO 2860-75 RANGE....