Weekly Updates-1.12.08- What If Bjp wins the assembly elections ?

Dear Friends,
Before I begin my Nifty views for the forthcoming week, I would like to start by giving my share of tributes to our brave army and police officers. Not only the ones who lost there lives but also the ones who made the Operation cyclone a success. To be truthful I don’t expect much on the terror front from our Impotent central government. One can say that the words are limited for one to express his disapproval for the current Central government. As a trader who looks for opportunity in every news Good or bad one can conclude that the days in office of this government in its present form is limited. Instead of inviting the ISI chief to the country the government should have formulated stricter laws and had implemented the same. It’s insane under current circumstances to see the Old man repeating his answering machine after every attack. Now the reason why I said we should seek for opportunity in every circumstance is that the probability of the NDA coming back to the power has increased considerably. Unless the UPA and the BSP decide to come together again along with the Left parties there is a dim chance for our Prime Minister Mr Manmohan Singh to be back at the helm.If the NDA is able to maintain its grip over Chattisgarh,Madhya pradesh and Rajasthan and at the same time capture Delhi from the INC,we might see a rally in the Indian indices.
There is a Golden rule which says that market doesn’t like uncertainty and the same rule mentions that the market rewards certainty. Watch for the days when the results will be out. If there is a consensus on either side one will make money by selling the News and vice versa. Technically the resistance in Nifty is at 20dma at 2837.Above 20dma the next resistance is at 50dma at 3211. These levels are in a broader sense. Macd has given a positive divergence in the chart. Rsi at 43 is also not in a SELL zone. One should tread cautiously on either side in the markets.
The Fii’s Figures for Friday was on a Buy side of 168 crs. Traders should remember that one shouldn’t read much from the figures on a settlement day. There will be selling based on Hedge fund redemption in December. Again this is a consensus now and markets seldom moves on the same. I will personally be trading using the options route on a positional basis with very less leverage. Traders who referred my earlier posts on Suzlon , Unitech and Gvk pil should have profited by not getting caught in the falling Knife. Anyone who bought Unitech in last 30 months would be on a notional loss. On march 1 2006Unitech was at 13.35 odd levels. It is the next major sustainable support for the stock. If it is broken stock might head to 5-7 levels. This is the technical view. At the same time what else can be said fundamentally about a company who is not clarifying on market rumors about sell of its own office.Truly the Unitech’s ,Parasvnaths,purvankaras,Sobha’s,Omaxe and the Brigade enterprise have become the Pentamedia and the Hfcl of 2008.Its early days and I might be wrong as usual but I am writing what my charts are narrating me. Some of them will bounce in the years to come and some will register themselves in the Long list of companies which once were traded in the stock exchange.The companies have started to pass on the decline in the raw material prices to the customers.Paints prices have dropped by 7-10% in past 7 days.In coming weeks same will be seen in Lubricants and other crude/petrochemical based producers.

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 28TH NOV

aroung 2800-2834 is a very dangerous zone for nifty a cross over of 2834 would mean nifty crossing a resistence trendline thats haunting the bulls since aug-sept 2008.

i wouldnt hold overnight longs till nifty closes above 2834. this time if nifty doesnt sustain 2800 levels, may fall towards 2490 levels.

For intraday, it will be weak below 2755 levels, and trading below it, may see 2707 levels.

if sustains above 2755, will hit 2800 levels.

again will be a highly volatile day.

Nov 28

: Attn Members:
Members are requested to note that there shall be no Trading today. F&O contracts shall expire on 28 November 2008 instead of today. The settlements scheduled for today stands postponed to tomorrow.

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 26TH NOV

We waited to short above 2800, but that never happened and nifty kept on falling.

for intraday, nifty will be weak below 2635, and another closing below 2655 may take nifty to 2541-2527 levels

only if trades above 2655 may go on to hit 2750 levels again.

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 25th NOV

though there is huge intraday volatility, nifty is still bullish, and the next fall will come only after market sees close to 2838 levels.


my gut feel is ( 85% sure) that market wont cross 2838 on closing basis, however gut feel shud never be trusted, and we will trade with SL only .


i will definately take short position in the range of 2800-2840 levels, and hold with SL above 2840 on closing basis.


i am not saying that we will fall heavily from those levels, but it can surely give 150-200 points in positional trade.


today for intraday, supp is at 2688 and resistence around 2770-2786 levels

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 24th NOV

2838, yes thts where i see big resistence and dont expect nifty to close above it soon.


In case, we get a big gap up, keep an eye on 2838. Not crossing this level, nifty may fall rapidly in comming days.


if manages to cross above this level, then we will see 2915 levels .

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 21st NOV

weakness will be seen if nifty below 2535, and next support at 2451.


in case we open a gap down, and we cross 2535, nifty may blast up to 2556-2575 levels again.


overall view is still bearish, and nifty would see strong resistence around 2630 levels in next few trading sessions, i expect a good fall from there, so keep that level in mind :-)

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 20th NOV

Nifty broke an important level of 2640 and closed below it, and thats going to be the SL for anybody who is short.


Next support is at 2540 levels.


for intraday if trades above 2640, may go on to hit 2673-2694 levels.

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 19th NOV

For today, nifty may retest yesterday's low once and may hold arnd 2640 levels.

2720 should be the SL for any shorts.

if trades above 2720, may hit 2765 levels for intraday, where it will again face resistence.

as of now, market still doesnt have much direction, and is just moving in a small range, so no positional view as of now...only if closes below 2640, the traders who are holding positional shorts, may still hold on, else one should book out and keep trades strict for intraday only. a closing below 2640 may show straight 2455 levels

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 17th NOV

Nifty intraday chart shows easy trades for comming days.
if you look at the attached chart, 2752 is the 50% level of the entire upmove, also it has the trendline there.
so this means, that a closing below 2752 would take nifty to 2630 levels, and if that breaks, thn new low for the year.
now looking at the way nifty is forming a cluster(support) around 2770 levels, in case we hold 2752 and cross 2874, one can go long with SL 2750 for tgt of 3026, where we will again short heavily.
keep this chart handy as this is gonna be very important for trades in comming 5-6 sessions.

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 14th NOV

Nifty will be weak if trades below 2886, and closing below 2886, nifty may target 2752-26xx levels in the comming week.

holding 2886, nifty may hit 2949-3065 as well as market has got double dose of good news in terms of good IIP no.s and lower Inflation.

after wednesday's closing, charts looks very bearish, however today's closng will show us the way of whats gonna happen in comming days.

in case markets closes below 2886 i may hold/carry shorts .

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 12th NOV

Nifty may open close to 2876 levels, and will be weak breaking 2876 .next intraday support is at 2833-2814 levels.

Now due to the big movement yestrday, all SL will be big for nifty and i can give more levels only once it opens today.

If u see the attached chart, it shows a perfect technical chart where nifty has broken down of a triangle and gives 1st tgt of 2752 thn 2628 with positional view with a SL of 3030 on closing basis.

so risky clients can keep following these levels if they are willing to take a big SL, this will be updated everyday.

now for intraday again , if 2876 sustaing, nifty can give a big pull back up to 3030 levels, however it wont be easy to cross.

also keep strct SL for all trades today , as i am expecting some news based volatile movement

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 11th NOV

3099 is going to be very important now, and shouldnt break for the uptrend to continue.

breaking 3099, nifty may dip to as much as 3030-2960 levels.

now if 3099 holds, nifty will again blast up, and on crossing yesterday's high of 3178, nifty will also break its previous recent high of 3298.

so yes we r defntly at a crucial point, and all those who are taking positional trades now, are just hoping for moves, and no body is sure. so trade intraday untill things are clear.

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 10th NOV

Nifty looks very bullish on eod charts, and holding spot level of 2860 nifty may rally as much as 3171-3230-34xx levels in comming days.

as a positional trader, i will trade long with a sl at 2860, and breaking this level, i will reverse my position, and short with double volume.

now for intraday 2972 should hold for upmove, and nifty may hit 3082.
breaking 2972, could fall to 2938 levels.

Weekly Updates-10.11.08-Will Nifty give a Big move

Dear Friends,
The previous week was a week of small cap FNO stocks.Almost across the board there was Buying (or if i am allowed to use the word covering of short positions) in them.What else can make people buying small ticker stocks right now.Yes there are news report of investments by renowned investors like George Soros in Gvk Power and infrastructure limited.Now before you jump in the wagon kindly note that he had sold the same at above 50 and is now simply covering the same back.Was it a short sell of holdings I have no idea.Gvk has been one of the laggards as compared to Gmr Infra since its Ipo days.The days of ample liquidity are gone and so are the good days of some of the leveraged Infra players.I wont Buy Gvk power because a legendary investor bought the same you can exercise your own due diligence.Moreover the same legendary investor lost 120 mln$-392 mln$ in buying Lehman brothers stock when it was at 16$ between march 31st and June 30th.Someone has rightly said you need Brains even to copy.
Now as i have already started the discussion on what to Buy and what to sell,I am in my personal capacity adding diversified companies with low debt equity ratios in my folio.for me cash is king and will be the king for coming quarters.Traders along with the above parameter can look out for dividend yield,past performance in previous bear runs and also the background of promoters before investing in any stock.This investment in my folio is not more then 5% of available cash at this moment of time.I do know that the stock market will bottom out before the bottoming out of the economy(Both local and global) at the same time I believe that the local economy has only started to deteriorate.Will share some of my picks in coming days if I feel they are a buy.
I was having a look at the latest Clsa Tits and Bits issue.One of the articles did surprised me was about large number of companies in Clsa universe going belly up in Hongkong.For the last four-five years except global trust bank and united western bank(If i remember the names correctly) no other major company went belly up.Yes some mid cap stocks become small cap stocks but then no companies were closed.I believe we will see some of these happening before we call the bottom in the downward cycle.What else can one expect with automotive companies reporting 50% YoY drop in sales.
I believe the best thing one can do when he doesn't know what to do is to start the concept with basics.I was reading some of the Introductory books on economics from my earlier collection again.One article in one of these books by Prof Greg Mankiw was on the experience of a Hot Dog seller.The Hot dog seller had a shop near a Highway in USA.He used to sell the same happily to the consumers.With his positive feel and view his sales grew year after year.One day his son a High school educated chap joined him in his business.The boy with all his known textual knowledge told his father that a recession is coming and it will effect everything.The Father reduced his enthusiasm in the business and his sales dwindled due to the same reason.Seeing the dwindling sales his Father told his Son on how right he was.I don't know whether we are experiencing something similar due to the widely reported downturn in the print and electronic media.
Emkay Global finance( Many investors curse themselves for investing in this share at 400 near the days of Hyped Motilal oswal public issue.cmp 39.) technical research division has come out with a report Titled that Bulls set for Big Innings with target price of 4250. in four to six months.My limited technical and fundamental knowledge dont allow me to agree with the theory.I might be wrong but if I hold cash it is never wrong.:) I personally want more brokerage houses to believe that the bear run is over so that i can come out with some long term non performers from my folio.( some bad investments in Infra space.)I believe we will now see a time wise bear market move and the best strategy in bear markets are to take your profits home and Trail using strict SL.
Last week was remarkable as most of the companies for the first time agreed on increasing inventories.I decided to take a personal feedback from a PVC pipe manufacturer.In his words the drop in prices forced him to check his old ledgers and he was surprised to see the price level of 2003.A deflation is the worst physiological effect that happens for a country and its citizens and do believe me when i say that it is worse then Inflation.I don't know whether we are heading for one of those gloomy days.Companies which were valued highly because of there well managed commodity division will be the ones which will suffer the most in coming months.I precisely mean companies which locked there raw material needs at the time of signing a contract.
I am not bearish for November at the same time i am not Bullish for the month.I expect sideways consolidation with range bound trading and a major move coming in December.Again i have been wrong in preempting market moves previously (I believe my success ratio will be more then Failure ration on the above,do let me know your comments.)and i can again be wrong but as i always say if I am wrong by holding cash i wont be that much wrong at this juncture.Just one more point before i conclude that even after drastic unprecedented reduction in Repo rates,SLR and CRR we are seeing 11-11.5% interest rate advertisements on first page of any pink paper.The reasons i leave for you to conclude.Do write in the reasons in the comments section below.

Nifty support-2973,2860

Nifty resistance-3149,3289

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 7th NOV

The most important level to watch in this down wave is 2763. till that level is broken, nifty will be fine.
In case 2763 breaks, nifty will be sold into in any upmove and will be in a position to retest new lows again ( this is an overall positional view)


Now for Intraday, after the gap down, we will still watch 2763 , if breaks may see 2721 for intraday.
if 2763 holds, may pull back to 2794-2833

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 4th NOV

3010, nifty will be weak below this level, and may hit 2978-2930-2911 for intrday.


sustaining above 3010, nifty will go on to hit 3040-3091


actually charts shows that nifty may hit 3155 before it can really fall in the short term, and i feel, positional shorts is still not a good idea.

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 3rd NOV

Nifty will show some strength on opening based on good news over the weekend.


now nifty sustaining above 3046, could have the strenght to go up to 32xx levels in this week. 


i feel 3255 will be an important level to watch out for on the upside.


however if trades below 3046, may get weak, as dow ( US Markets) is also at resistence levels.


still positional trade has to be avoided for the week, and for intra levels be in the chat room.

NIFTY UPDATES- Week begining 03.11.08

Dear Friends,
Last week was a particularly noteworthy week.There are two reasons for the statement,the first reason being that Nifty moved in tandem with expectations and gyrated within the weekly zone of 2250 and 2950 and the second reason being that the two delivery calls given in mid week for short term investment hit the Bulls eye from the bears zone.We had given two delivery calls to premium clients.Hindoilexp at 43 and ICICI bank at 290 odd levels.It is not common to get 63%+ returns in Mid cap FNO stocks in four flat trading sessions.Same goes with returns on Icici bank.Now let me come back to the reason why I had mentioned the above two trades.It has been my personal observation as well as advise from experienced traders that In a Bull Market its all about your holding capacity while in a Bear market its all about your timings which matters."
In a Bull market more then 80% stocks empirically take part in an up move.In a bear market more then 90% stocks take part in a down move.Stock selection is always important but equally or rather more important is timing in the bear run.You have to time both your entry and exit to survive in trading in a bear market in Dalal street.Now coming to the broader views I was personally surprised to hear about status quo on Rbi policy meet on Monday 27th October.I am not at all surprised today after the announcement of 100 bps CRR cut,100 bps SLR cut and 50 bps Repo rate cut by Rbi.I believe the Govt of India is also for a change following the technical of the market.Any Technical analyst can bet with me that the selling on Monday was bound to happen with or without rate cuts.We are atleast in a small short term uptrend now where stocks wont be sold after the news is out.
I wont extrapolate from Nifty levels whether one should invest now or later.For me and many more traders many stocks were in BUY zone once we were in vicinity to 4000 levels in Nifty.Its surprising that people now have a Bullish target of 4000 in Nifty.Any buys by me has been done keeping long term view in mind.There is a small pre election rally in Dow jones as of now.We will move similarly to the movement of the overseas markets in coming sessions after the effect of the rate cuts eases out.For those who believe that they have missed out a major bear market rally kindly note that in a bear market the rallies are used not to add but to churn your portfolio.Use the current rally to exit leveraged trades,leveraged companies and Bad investments.
Technically Nifty has a resistance now at 20 day moving avg at 3166.The real resistance is at 50dma at 3636.Kindly dont be trapped in a bear market pull back.Use decent pullbacks to get rid of indecent stocks in your folio.Exit the likes of ispat industry,wwil,DCB,unitech,suzlon and other penny stocks.I am using the word penny as they are future penny stocks for me technically. :) 
There was a blow off rally witnessed in Reliance,Hdfc and Icici bank in previous session.On Friday Night sebi had released data on the outstanding short positions of Fiis on 9th October.There is a question mark whether the positions are outstanding anymore or not.Seeing the movement of the above mentioned stocks in last two-three sessions a majority of them seems to be covered.It might be one of the main reasons for a Buy figure of 1237.21 crs.I am not sure of the same as I dont have access to the latest fiis short sell data (Since Outstanding positions on October 31st is not uploaded.)I will advise traders to be cautiously optimistic for the coming week as there is some serious short covering rallies but as always the question in my mind is what is the next Big tradeable trend.I simply wont recommend any trades without sl in coming week.

Nifty support,2921,2787

Nifty resistance-3166,3289