Dear Friends,
Last week was a particularly noteworthy week.There are two reasons for the statement,the first reason being that Nifty moved in tandem with expectations and gyrated within the weekly zone of 2250 and 2950 and the second reason being that the two delivery calls given in mid week for short term investment hit the Bulls eye from the bears zone.We had given two delivery calls to premium clients.Hindoilexp at 43 and ICICI bank at 290 odd levels.It is not common to get 63%+ returns in Mid cap FNO stocks in four flat trading sessions.Same goes with returns on Icici bank.Now let me come back to the reason why I had mentioned the above two trades.It has been my personal observation as well as advise from experienced traders that In a Bull Market its all about your holding capacity while in a Bear market its all about your timings which matters."
In a Bull market more then 80% stocks empirically take part in an up move.In a bear market more then 90% stocks take part in a down move.Stock selection is always important but equally or rather more important is timing in the bear run.You have to time both your entry and exit to survive in trading in a bear market in Dalal street.Now coming to the broader views I was personally surprised to hear about status quo on Rbi policy meet on Monday 27th October.I am not at all surprised today after the announcement of 100 bps CRR cut,100 bps SLR cut and 50 bps Repo rate cut by Rbi.I believe the Govt of India is also for a change following the technical of the market.Any Technical analyst can bet with me that the selling on Monday was bound to happen with or without rate cuts.We are atleast in a small short term uptrend now where stocks wont be sold after the news is out.
I wont extrapolate from Nifty levels whether one should invest now or later.For me and many more traders many stocks were in BUY zone once we were in vicinity to 4000 levels in Nifty.Its surprising that people now have a Bullish target of 4000 in Nifty.Any buys by me has been done keeping long term view in mind.There is a small pre election rally in Dow jones as of now.We will move similarly to the movement of the overseas markets in coming sessions after the effect of the rate cuts eases out.For those who believe that they have missed out a major bear market rally kindly note that in a bear market the rallies are used not to add but to churn your portfolio.Use the current rally to exit leveraged trades,leveraged companies and Bad investments.
Technically Nifty has a resistance now at 20 day moving avg at 3166.The real resistance is at 50dma at 3636.Kindly dont be trapped in a bear market pull back.Use decent pullbacks to get rid of indecent stocks in your folio.Exit the likes of ispat industry,wwil,DCB,unitech,suzlon and other penny stocks.I am using the word penny as they are future penny stocks for me technically. :)
There was a blow off rally witnessed in Reliance,Hdfc and Icici bank in previous session.On Friday Night sebi had released data on the outstanding short positions of Fiis on 9th October.There is a question mark whether the positions are outstanding anymore or not.Seeing the movement of the above mentioned stocks in last two-three sessions a majority of them seems to be covered.It might be one of the main reasons for a Buy figure of 1237.21 crs.I am not sure of the same as I dont have access to the latest fiis short sell data (Since Outstanding positions on October 31st is not uploaded.)I will advise traders to be cautiously optimistic for the coming week as there is some serious short covering rallies but as always the question in my mind is what is the next Big tradeable trend.I simply wont recommend any trades without sl in coming week.
Nifty support,2921,2787
Nifty resistance-3166,3289
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