a closing below 2836 today would mean that nifty will target 2757-2658, with a SL of 2920 on positional basis.
yesterday, nifty faced resistence at the higher trendline, so i expect some downside in the comming week.
if closes below 2836 today, i will carry my shorts with 2920 sl
Thursday, December 11, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 11th DEC
Hello friends, after this long break, i m gonna update my blog daily now on with the imp nifty levels.
Nifty has given a vertical upmove, and its difficult to take a positional view till a dip comes.
resistence now at 3028-3047.further for intraday support exists at 2915-2887.
i would strictly advise traders to keep their trades to intraday only, and yes, positional shorts is not really option right now, so please avoid it.
Nifty has given a vertical upmove, and its difficult to take a positional view till a dip comes.
resistence now at 3028-3047.further for intraday support exists at 2915-2887.
i would strictly advise traders to keep their trades to intraday only, and yes, positional shorts is not really option right now, so please avoid it.
Sunday, December 7, 2008
Weekly Updates-08.12.08- Who will be stimulated by the Fiscal stimulus of G.O.I ?
Dear Friends,
The alternative to the classical theory proposed way back in 1936 by the British economist John Maynard Keynes in his book.” The General theory of Employment, Interest and Money." After the Great depression Keynes proposed a new way to analyze the economy, which he presented as an alternative to classical theory. He proposed that low aggregate demand is responsible for the low income and high unemployment that characterize economic downturns, the one I am seeing in current situation.
The relevance of the above post is prominent in the current situation. What most of the Federal governments and the Third world countries are doing is trying to expand aggregate demand by the help of rate cuts and fiscal stimulus packages. A combination of monetary and fiscal policy seems to be the only viable option that the policy makers can opt for in current situation. Rbi has reduced repo and reverse repo rates by 100 bps. There are more rate cuts coming in the near future then ever before. The million-dollar question remains unanswered will it create demand in a recessionary environment. Do remember as per Keynesian theory the aggregate demand needs to expand for the economy to keep growing.
The IIP numbers which will be announced ahead in the week might be negative to marginally positive in nature. Traders should note that the stimulus package might simply disappoint if the value of the same is insignificant in nature. It might be a cosmetic setup to make people believe that enough is being done to stimulate the Industry in the backdrop of the IIP numbers.
Crude oil prices have fallen more then 70% from its all time highs. Is crude heading the way it did in the 1970,s. I have no idea but the charts suggest the same. Will it head the way Jute industry moved in past. The government of India to generate employment now supports the Indian Jute industry. I have no idea on the same but a good number of oil fields are now operating below their marginal cost of production. Shorts to watch out will be in large cap stocks. There is a report on The Economic Times Edition of 6th December that Reliance industry is seeing negative margins in some of its products. Classically the demand supply theory will help in price adjustment over the Long term.
The Fiscal stimulus package by the Government of India has not been announced as of now. I believe that one should see the minute details of the same. Is the government trying to increase the aggregate demand or is it trying to simply stimulate the economy using a cosmetic setup of excise duty cuts and export incentives.
In Nifty we are simply seeing a consolidation since three weeks. With consolidation there is a converging triangle visible in the same. Downward Breakdown signal for the same will be received if 2570 is broken, Further break of 2500 will confirm the same. At 2570 one should exit longs and a closing below 2500 will indicate fresh shorts. At the same time a closing above 2835 will indicate is broken Upward. A move beyond 2940 will confirm the same. Election results on 8th of December will be one more indicator mentioned in previous week.
The alternative to the classical theory proposed way back in 1936 by the British economist John Maynard Keynes in his book.” The General theory of Employment, Interest and Money." After the Great depression Keynes proposed a new way to analyze the economy, which he presented as an alternative to classical theory. He proposed that low aggregate demand is responsible for the low income and high unemployment that characterize economic downturns, the one I am seeing in current situation.
The relevance of the above post is prominent in the current situation. What most of the Federal governments and the Third world countries are doing is trying to expand aggregate demand by the help of rate cuts and fiscal stimulus packages. A combination of monetary and fiscal policy seems to be the only viable option that the policy makers can opt for in current situation. Rbi has reduced repo and reverse repo rates by 100 bps. There are more rate cuts coming in the near future then ever before. The million-dollar question remains unanswered will it create demand in a recessionary environment. Do remember as per Keynesian theory the aggregate demand needs to expand for the economy to keep growing.
The IIP numbers which will be announced ahead in the week might be negative to marginally positive in nature. Traders should note that the stimulus package might simply disappoint if the value of the same is insignificant in nature. It might be a cosmetic setup to make people believe that enough is being done to stimulate the Industry in the backdrop of the IIP numbers.
Crude oil prices have fallen more then 70% from its all time highs. Is crude heading the way it did in the 1970,s. I have no idea but the charts suggest the same. Will it head the way Jute industry moved in past. The government of India to generate employment now supports the Indian Jute industry. I have no idea on the same but a good number of oil fields are now operating below their marginal cost of production. Shorts to watch out will be in large cap stocks. There is a report on The Economic Times Edition of 6th December that Reliance industry is seeing negative margins in some of its products. Classically the demand supply theory will help in price adjustment over the Long term.
The Fiscal stimulus package by the Government of India has not been announced as of now. I believe that one should see the minute details of the same. Is the government trying to increase the aggregate demand or is it trying to simply stimulate the economy using a cosmetic setup of excise duty cuts and export incentives.
In Nifty we are simply seeing a consolidation since three weeks. With consolidation there is a converging triangle visible in the same. Downward Breakdown signal for the same will be received if 2570 is broken, Further break of 2500 will confirm the same. At 2570 one should exit longs and a closing below 2500 will indicate fresh shorts. At the same time a closing above 2835 will indicate is broken Upward. A move beyond 2940 will confirm the same. Election results on 8th of December will be one more indicator mentioned in previous week.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 4th DEC
Nifty EOD chart says, i am highly confused and dunno where to go :-D.
nifty is on a downtrend, but i am surprised to see how it is reluctant to fall.
every dip is being bought into, and shorts are not at all comfortable.
now in terms of levels, till nifty is below 2755, it will be on a downtrend, and if closes above 2755, may quickly go to 29xx, where it will give a good shorting oppurtunity :-).
for intraday today, below 2655, nifty is weak and may see 2552 levels, however if crosses 2655, may blast to 2680-2697 levels.
a closing below 2655 will be considered as weak.
i personally feel, nifty may give a sudden upmove before it resumes its downtrend again.
nifty is on a downtrend, but i am surprised to see how it is reluctant to fall.
every dip is being bought into, and shorts are not at all comfortable.
now in terms of levels, till nifty is below 2755, it will be on a downtrend, and if closes above 2755, may quickly go to 29xx, where it will give a good shorting oppurtunity :-).
for intraday today, below 2655, nifty is weak and may see 2552 levels, however if crosses 2655, may blast to 2680-2697 levels.
a closing below 2655 will be considered as weak.
i personally feel, nifty may give a sudden upmove before it resumes its downtrend again.
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Weekly Updates-1.12.08- What If Bjp wins the assembly elections ?
Dear Friends,
Before I begin my Nifty views for the forthcoming week, I would like to start by giving my share of tributes to our brave army and police officers. Not only the ones who lost there lives but also the ones who made the Operation cyclone a success. To be truthful I don’t expect much on the terror front from our Impotent central government. One can say that the words are limited for one to express his disapproval for the current Central government. As a trader who looks for opportunity in every news Good or bad one can conclude that the days in office of this government in its present form is limited. Instead of inviting the ISI chief to the country the government should have formulated stricter laws and had implemented the same. It’s insane under current circumstances to see the Old man repeating his answering machine after every attack. Now the reason why I said we should seek for opportunity in every circumstance is that the probability of the NDA coming back to the power has increased considerably. Unless the UPA and the BSP decide to come together again along with the Left parties there is a dim chance for our Prime Minister Mr Manmohan Singh to be back at the helm.If the NDA is able to maintain its grip over Chattisgarh,Madhya pradesh and Rajasthan and at the same time capture Delhi from the INC,we might see a rally in the Indian indices.
There is a Golden rule which says that market doesn’t like uncertainty and the same rule mentions that the market rewards certainty. Watch for the days when the results will be out. If there is a consensus on either side one will make money by selling the News and vice versa. Technically the resistance in Nifty is at 20dma at 2837.Above 20dma the next resistance is at 50dma at 3211. These levels are in a broader sense. Macd has given a positive divergence in the chart. Rsi at 43 is also not in a SELL zone. One should tread cautiously on either side in the markets.
The Fii’s Figures for Friday was on a Buy side of 168 crs. Traders should remember that one shouldn’t read much from the figures on a settlement day. There will be selling based on Hedge fund redemption in December. Again this is a consensus now and markets seldom moves on the same. I will personally be trading using the options route on a positional basis with very less leverage. Traders who referred my earlier posts on Suzlon , Unitech and Gvk pil should have profited by not getting caught in the falling Knife. Anyone who bought Unitech in last 30 months would be on a notional loss. On march 1 2006Unitech was at 13.35 odd levels. It is the next major sustainable support for the stock. If it is broken stock might head to 5-7 levels. This is the technical view. At the same time what else can be said fundamentally about a company who is not clarifying on market rumors about sell of its own office.Truly the Unitech’s ,Parasvnaths,purvankaras,Sobha’s,Omaxe and the Brigade enterprise have become the Pentamedia and the Hfcl of 2008.Its early days and I might be wrong as usual but I am writing what my charts are narrating me. Some of them will bounce in the years to come and some will register themselves in the Long list of companies which once were traded in the stock exchange.The companies have started to pass on the decline in the raw material prices to the customers.Paints prices have dropped by 7-10% in past 7 days.In coming weeks same will be seen in Lubricants and other crude/petrochemical based producers.
Before I begin my Nifty views for the forthcoming week, I would like to start by giving my share of tributes to our brave army and police officers. Not only the ones who lost there lives but also the ones who made the Operation cyclone a success. To be truthful I don’t expect much on the terror front from our Impotent central government. One can say that the words are limited for one to express his disapproval for the current Central government. As a trader who looks for opportunity in every news Good or bad one can conclude that the days in office of this government in its present form is limited. Instead of inviting the ISI chief to the country the government should have formulated stricter laws and had implemented the same. It’s insane under current circumstances to see the Old man repeating his answering machine after every attack. Now the reason why I said we should seek for opportunity in every circumstance is that the probability of the NDA coming back to the power has increased considerably. Unless the UPA and the BSP decide to come together again along with the Left parties there is a dim chance for our Prime Minister Mr Manmohan Singh to be back at the helm.If the NDA is able to maintain its grip over Chattisgarh,Madhya pradesh and Rajasthan and at the same time capture Delhi from the INC,we might see a rally in the Indian indices.
There is a Golden rule which says that market doesn’t like uncertainty and the same rule mentions that the market rewards certainty. Watch for the days when the results will be out. If there is a consensus on either side one will make money by selling the News and vice versa. Technically the resistance in Nifty is at 20dma at 2837.Above 20dma the next resistance is at 50dma at 3211. These levels are in a broader sense. Macd has given a positive divergence in the chart. Rsi at 43 is also not in a SELL zone. One should tread cautiously on either side in the markets.
The Fii’s Figures for Friday was on a Buy side of 168 crs. Traders should remember that one shouldn’t read much from the figures on a settlement day. There will be selling based on Hedge fund redemption in December. Again this is a consensus now and markets seldom moves on the same. I will personally be trading using the options route on a positional basis with very less leverage. Traders who referred my earlier posts on Suzlon , Unitech and Gvk pil should have profited by not getting caught in the falling Knife. Anyone who bought Unitech in last 30 months would be on a notional loss. On march 1 2006Unitech was at 13.35 odd levels. It is the next major sustainable support for the stock. If it is broken stock might head to 5-7 levels. This is the technical view. At the same time what else can be said fundamentally about a company who is not clarifying on market rumors about sell of its own office.Truly the Unitech’s ,Parasvnaths,purvankaras,Sobha’s,Omaxe and the Brigade enterprise have become the Pentamedia and the Hfcl of 2008.Its early days and I might be wrong as usual but I am writing what my charts are narrating me. Some of them will bounce in the years to come and some will register themselves in the Long list of companies which once were traded in the stock exchange.The companies have started to pass on the decline in the raw material prices to the customers.Paints prices have dropped by 7-10% in past 7 days.In coming weeks same will be seen in Lubricants and other crude/petrochemical based producers.
Thursday, November 27, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 28TH NOV
aroung 2800-2834 is a very dangerous zone for nifty a cross over of 2834 would mean nifty crossing a resistence trendline thats haunting the bulls since aug-sept 2008.
i wouldnt hold overnight longs till nifty closes above 2834. this time if nifty doesnt sustain 2800 levels, may fall towards 2490 levels.
For intraday, it will be weak below 2755 levels, and trading below it, may see 2707 levels.
if sustains above 2755, will hit 2800 levels.
again will be a highly volatile day.
i wouldnt hold overnight longs till nifty closes above 2834. this time if nifty doesnt sustain 2800 levels, may fall towards 2490 levels.
For intraday, it will be weak below 2755 levels, and trading below it, may see 2707 levels.
if sustains above 2755, will hit 2800 levels.
again will be a highly volatile day.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Nov 28
: Attn Members:
Members are requested to note that there shall be no Trading today. F&O contracts shall expire on 28 November 2008 instead of today. The settlements scheduled for today stands postponed to tomorrow.
Members are requested to note that there shall be no Trading today. F&O contracts shall expire on 28 November 2008 instead of today. The settlements scheduled for today stands postponed to tomorrow.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 26TH NOV
We waited to short above 2800, but that never happened and nifty kept on falling.
for intraday, nifty will be weak below 2635, and another closing below 2655 may take nifty to 2541-2527 levels
only if trades above 2655 may go on to hit 2750 levels again.
for intraday, nifty will be weak below 2635, and another closing below 2655 may take nifty to 2541-2527 levels
only if trades above 2655 may go on to hit 2750 levels again.
Monday, November 24, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 25th NOV
though there is huge intraday volatility, nifty is still bullish, and the next fall will come only after market sees close to 2838 levels.
my gut feel is ( 85% sure) that market wont cross 2838 on closing basis, however gut feel shud never be trusted, and we will trade with SL only .
i will definately take short position in the range of 2800-2840 levels, and hold with SL above 2840 on closing basis.
i am not saying that we will fall heavily from those levels, but it can surely give 150-200 points in positional trade.
today for intraday, supp is at 2688 and resistence around 2770-2786 levels
my gut feel is ( 85% sure) that market wont cross 2838 on closing basis, however gut feel shud never be trusted, and we will trade with SL only .
i will definately take short position in the range of 2800-2840 levels, and hold with SL above 2840 on closing basis.
i am not saying that we will fall heavily from those levels, but it can surely give 150-200 points in positional trade.
today for intraday, supp is at 2688 and resistence around 2770-2786 levels
Sunday, November 23, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 24th NOV
2838, yes thts where i see big resistence and dont expect nifty to close above it soon.
In case, we get a big gap up, keep an eye on 2838. Not crossing this level, nifty may fall rapidly in comming days.
if manages to cross above this level, then we will see 2915 levels .
In case, we get a big gap up, keep an eye on 2838. Not crossing this level, nifty may fall rapidly in comming days.
if manages to cross above this level, then we will see 2915 levels .
Thursday, November 20, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 21st NOV
weakness will be seen if nifty below 2535, and next support at 2451.
in case we open a gap down, and we cross 2535, nifty may blast up to 2556-2575 levels again.
overall view is still bearish, and nifty would see strong resistence around 2630 levels in next few trading sessions, i expect a good fall from there, so keep that level in mind :-)
in case we open a gap down, and we cross 2535, nifty may blast up to 2556-2575 levels again.
overall view is still bearish, and nifty would see strong resistence around 2630 levels in next few trading sessions, i expect a good fall from there, so keep that level in mind :-)
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 20th NOV
Nifty broke an important level of 2640 and closed below it, and thats going to be the SL for anybody who is short.
Next support is at 2540 levels.
for intraday if trades above 2640, may go on to hit 2673-2694 levels.
Next support is at 2540 levels.
for intraday if trades above 2640, may go on to hit 2673-2694 levels.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 19th NOV
For today, nifty may retest yesterday's low once and may hold arnd 2640 levels.
2720 should be the SL for any shorts.
if trades above 2720, may hit 2765 levels for intraday, where it will again face resistence.
as of now, market still doesnt have much direction, and is just moving in a small range, so no positional view as of now...only if closes below 2640, the traders who are holding positional shorts, may still hold on, else one should book out and keep trades strict for intraday only. a closing below 2640 may show straight 2455 levels
2720 should be the SL for any shorts.
if trades above 2720, may hit 2765 levels for intraday, where it will again face resistence.
as of now, market still doesnt have much direction, and is just moving in a small range, so no positional view as of now...only if closes below 2640, the traders who are holding positional shorts, may still hold on, else one should book out and keep trades strict for intraday only. a closing below 2640 may show straight 2455 levels
Sunday, November 16, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 17th NOV
Nifty intraday chart shows easy trades for comming days.
if you look at the attached chart, 2752 is the 50% level of the entire upmove, also it has the trendline there.
so this means, that a closing below 2752 would take nifty to 2630 levels, and if that breaks, thn new low for the year.
now looking at the way nifty is forming a cluster(support) around 2770 levels, in case we hold 2752 and cross 2874, one can go long with SL 2750 for tgt of 3026, where we will again short heavily.
keep this chart handy as this is gonna be very important for trades in comming 5-6 sessions.
if you look at the attached chart, 2752 is the 50% level of the entire upmove, also it has the trendline there.
so this means, that a closing below 2752 would take nifty to 2630 levels, and if that breaks, thn new low for the year.
now looking at the way nifty is forming a cluster(support) around 2770 levels, in case we hold 2752 and cross 2874, one can go long with SL 2750 for tgt of 3026, where we will again short heavily.
keep this chart handy as this is gonna be very important for trades in comming 5-6 sessions.
Friday, November 14, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 14th NOV
Nifty will be weak if trades below 2886, and closing below 2886, nifty may target 2752-26xx levels in the comming week.
holding 2886, nifty may hit 2949-3065 as well as market has got double dose of good news in terms of good IIP no.s and lower Inflation.
after wednesday's closing, charts looks very bearish, however today's closng will show us the way of whats gonna happen in comming days.
in case markets closes below 2886 i may hold/carry shorts .
holding 2886, nifty may hit 2949-3065 as well as market has got double dose of good news in terms of good IIP no.s and lower Inflation.
after wednesday's closing, charts looks very bearish, however today's closng will show us the way of whats gonna happen in comming days.
in case markets closes below 2886 i may hold/carry shorts .
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 12th NOV
Nifty may open close to 2876 levels, and will be weak breaking 2876 .next intraday support is at 2833-2814 levels.
Now due to the big movement yestrday, all SL will be big for nifty and i can give more levels only once it opens today.
If u see the attached chart, it shows a perfect technical chart where nifty has broken down of a triangle and gives 1st tgt of 2752 thn 2628 with positional view with a SL of 3030 on closing basis.
so risky clients can keep following these levels if they are willing to take a big SL, this will be updated everyday.
now for intraday again , if 2876 sustaing, nifty can give a big pull back up to 3030 levels, however it wont be easy to cross.
also keep strct SL for all trades today , as i am expecting some news based volatile movement
Now due to the big movement yestrday, all SL will be big for nifty and i can give more levels only once it opens today.
If u see the attached chart, it shows a perfect technical chart where nifty has broken down of a triangle and gives 1st tgt of 2752 thn 2628 with positional view with a SL of 3030 on closing basis.
so risky clients can keep following these levels if they are willing to take a big SL, this will be updated everyday.
now for intraday again , if 2876 sustaing, nifty can give a big pull back up to 3030 levels, however it wont be easy to cross.
also keep strct SL for all trades today , as i am expecting some news based volatile movement
Monday, November 10, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 11th NOV
3099 is going to be very important now, and shouldnt break for the uptrend to continue.
breaking 3099, nifty may dip to as much as 3030-2960 levels.
now if 3099 holds, nifty will again blast up, and on crossing yesterday's high of 3178, nifty will also break its previous recent high of 3298.
so yes we r defntly at a crucial point, and all those who are taking positional trades now, are just hoping for moves, and no body is sure. so trade intraday untill things are clear.
breaking 3099, nifty may dip to as much as 3030-2960 levels.
now if 3099 holds, nifty will again blast up, and on crossing yesterday's high of 3178, nifty will also break its previous recent high of 3298.
so yes we r defntly at a crucial point, and all those who are taking positional trades now, are just hoping for moves, and no body is sure. so trade intraday untill things are clear.
Sunday, November 9, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 10th NOV
Nifty looks very bullish on eod charts, and holding spot level of 2860 nifty may rally as much as 3171-3230-34xx levels in comming days.
as a positional trader, i will trade long with a sl at 2860, and breaking this level, i will reverse my position, and short with double volume.
now for intraday 2972 should hold for upmove, and nifty may hit 3082.
breaking 2972, could fall to 2938 levels.
as a positional trader, i will trade long with a sl at 2860, and breaking this level, i will reverse my position, and short with double volume.
now for intraday 2972 should hold for upmove, and nifty may hit 3082.
breaking 2972, could fall to 2938 levels.
Saturday, November 8, 2008
Weekly Updates-10.11.08-Will Nifty give a Big move
Dear Friends,
The previous week was a week of small cap FNO stocks.Almost across the board there was Buying (or if i am allowed to use the word covering of short positions) in them.What else can make people buying small ticker stocks right now.Yes there are news report of investments by renowned investors like George Soros in Gvk Power and infrastructure limited.Now before you jump in the wagon kindly note that he had sold the same at above 50 and is now simply covering the same back.Was it a short sell of holdings I have no idea.Gvk has been one of the laggards as compared to Gmr Infra since its Ipo days.The days of ample liquidity are gone and so are the good days of some of the leveraged Infra players.I wont Buy Gvk power because a legendary investor bought the same you can exercise your own due diligence.Moreover the same legendary investor lost 120 mln$-392 mln$ in buying Lehman brothers stock when it was at 16$ between march 31st and June 30th.Someone has rightly said you need Brains even to copy.
Now as i have already started the discussion on what to Buy and what to sell,I am in my personal capacity adding diversified companies with low debt equity ratios in my folio.for me cash is king and will be the king for coming quarters.Traders along with the above parameter can look out for dividend yield,past performance in previous bear runs and also the background of promoters before investing in any stock.This investment in my folio is not more then 5% of available cash at this moment of time.I do know that the stock market will bottom out before the bottoming out of the economy(Both local and global) at the same time I believe that the local economy has only started to deteriorate.Will share some of my picks in coming days if I feel they are a buy.
I was having a look at the latest Clsa Tits and Bits issue.One of the articles did surprised me was about large number of companies in Clsa universe going belly up in Hongkong.For the last four-five years except global trust bank and united western bank(If i remember the names correctly) no other major company went belly up.Yes some mid cap stocks become small cap stocks but then no companies were closed.I believe we will see some of these happening before we call the bottom in the downward cycle.What else can one expect with automotive companies reporting 50% YoY drop in sales.
I believe the best thing one can do when he doesn't know what to do is to start the concept with basics.I was reading some of the Introductory books on economics from my earlier collection again.One article in one of these books by Prof Greg Mankiw was on the experience of a Hot Dog seller.The Hot dog seller had a shop near a Highway in USA.He used to sell the same happily to the consumers.With his positive feel and view his sales grew year after year.One day his son a High school educated chap joined him in his business.The boy with all his known textual knowledge told his father that a recession is coming and it will effect everything.The Father reduced his enthusiasm in the business and his sales dwindled due to the same reason.Seeing the dwindling sales his Father told his Son on how right he was.I don't know whether we are experiencing something similar due to the widely reported downturn in the print and electronic media.
Emkay Global finance( Many investors curse themselves for investing in this share at 400 near the days of Hyped Motilal oswal public issue.cmp 39.) technical research division has come out with a report Titled that Bulls set for Big Innings with target price of 4250. in four to six months.My limited technical and fundamental knowledge dont allow me to agree with the theory.I might be wrong but if I hold cash it is never wrong.:) I personally want more brokerage houses to believe that the bear run is over so that i can come out with some long term non performers from my folio.( some bad investments in Infra space.)I believe we will now see a time wise bear market move and the best strategy in bear markets are to take your profits home and Trail using strict SL.
Last week was remarkable as most of the companies for the first time agreed on increasing inventories.I decided to take a personal feedback from a PVC pipe manufacturer.In his words the drop in prices forced him to check his old ledgers and he was surprised to see the price level of 2003.A deflation is the worst physiological effect that happens for a country and its citizens and do believe me when i say that it is worse then Inflation.I don't know whether we are heading for one of those gloomy days.Companies which were valued highly because of there well managed commodity division will be the ones which will suffer the most in coming months.I precisely mean companies which locked there raw material needs at the time of signing a contract.
I am not bearish for November at the same time i am not Bullish for the month.I expect sideways consolidation with range bound trading and a major move coming in December.Again i have been wrong in preempting market moves previously (I believe my success ratio will be more then Failure ration on the above,do let me know your comments.)and i can again be wrong but as i always say if I am wrong by holding cash i wont be that much wrong at this juncture.Just one more point before i conclude that even after drastic unprecedented reduction in Repo rates,SLR and CRR we are seeing 11-11.5% interest rate advertisements on first page of any pink paper.The reasons i leave for you to conclude.Do write in the reasons in the comments section below.
Nifty support-2973,2860
Nifty resistance-3149,3289
The previous week was a week of small cap FNO stocks.Almost across the board there was Buying (or if i am allowed to use the word covering of short positions) in them.What else can make people buying small ticker stocks right now.Yes there are news report of investments by renowned investors like George Soros in Gvk Power and infrastructure limited.Now before you jump in the wagon kindly note that he had sold the same at above 50 and is now simply covering the same back.Was it a short sell of holdings I have no idea.Gvk has been one of the laggards as compared to Gmr Infra since its Ipo days.The days of ample liquidity are gone and so are the good days of some of the leveraged Infra players.I wont Buy Gvk power because a legendary investor bought the same you can exercise your own due diligence.Moreover the same legendary investor lost 120 mln$-392 mln$ in buying Lehman brothers stock when it was at 16$ between march 31st and June 30th.Someone has rightly said you need Brains even to copy.
Now as i have already started the discussion on what to Buy and what to sell,I am in my personal capacity adding diversified companies with low debt equity ratios in my folio.for me cash is king and will be the king for coming quarters.Traders along with the above parameter can look out for dividend yield,past performance in previous bear runs and also the background of promoters before investing in any stock.This investment in my folio is not more then 5% of available cash at this moment of time.I do know that the stock market will bottom out before the bottoming out of the economy(Both local and global) at the same time I believe that the local economy has only started to deteriorate.Will share some of my picks in coming days if I feel they are a buy.
I was having a look at the latest Clsa Tits and Bits issue.One of the articles did surprised me was about large number of companies in Clsa universe going belly up in Hongkong.For the last four-five years except global trust bank and united western bank(If i remember the names correctly) no other major company went belly up.Yes some mid cap stocks become small cap stocks but then no companies were closed.I believe we will see some of these happening before we call the bottom in the downward cycle.What else can one expect with automotive companies reporting 50% YoY drop in sales.
I believe the best thing one can do when he doesn't know what to do is to start the concept with basics.I was reading some of the Introductory books on economics from my earlier collection again.One article in one of these books by Prof Greg Mankiw was on the experience of a Hot Dog seller.The Hot dog seller had a shop near a Highway in USA.He used to sell the same happily to the consumers.With his positive feel and view his sales grew year after year.One day his son a High school educated chap joined him in his business.The boy with all his known textual knowledge told his father that a recession is coming and it will effect everything.The Father reduced his enthusiasm in the business and his sales dwindled due to the same reason.Seeing the dwindling sales his Father told his Son on how right he was.I don't know whether we are experiencing something similar due to the widely reported downturn in the print and electronic media.
Emkay Global finance( Many investors curse themselves for investing in this share at 400 near the days of Hyped Motilal oswal public issue.cmp 39.) technical research division has come out with a report Titled that Bulls set for Big Innings with target price of 4250. in four to six months.My limited technical and fundamental knowledge dont allow me to agree with the theory.I might be wrong but if I hold cash it is never wrong.:) I personally want more brokerage houses to believe that the bear run is over so that i can come out with some long term non performers from my folio.( some bad investments in Infra space.)I believe we will now see a time wise bear market move and the best strategy in bear markets are to take your profits home and Trail using strict SL.
Last week was remarkable as most of the companies for the first time agreed on increasing inventories.I decided to take a personal feedback from a PVC pipe manufacturer.In his words the drop in prices forced him to check his old ledgers and he was surprised to see the price level of 2003.A deflation is the worst physiological effect that happens for a country and its citizens and do believe me when i say that it is worse then Inflation.I don't know whether we are heading for one of those gloomy days.Companies which were valued highly because of there well managed commodity division will be the ones which will suffer the most in coming months.I precisely mean companies which locked there raw material needs at the time of signing a contract.
I am not bearish for November at the same time i am not Bullish for the month.I expect sideways consolidation with range bound trading and a major move coming in December.Again i have been wrong in preempting market moves previously (I believe my success ratio will be more then Failure ration on the above,do let me know your comments.)and i can again be wrong but as i always say if I am wrong by holding cash i wont be that much wrong at this juncture.Just one more point before i conclude that even after drastic unprecedented reduction in Repo rates,SLR and CRR we are seeing 11-11.5% interest rate advertisements on first page of any pink paper.The reasons i leave for you to conclude.Do write in the reasons in the comments section below.
Nifty support-2973,2860
Nifty resistance-3149,3289
Thursday, November 6, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 7th NOV
The most important level to watch in this down wave is 2763. till that level is broken, nifty will be fine.
In case 2763 breaks, nifty will be sold into in any upmove and will be in a position to retest new lows again ( this is an overall positional view)
Now for Intraday, after the gap down, we will still watch 2763 , if breaks may see 2721 for intraday.
if 2763 holds, may pull back to 2794-2833
In case 2763 breaks, nifty will be sold into in any upmove and will be in a position to retest new lows again ( this is an overall positional view)
Now for Intraday, after the gap down, we will still watch 2763 , if breaks may see 2721 for intraday.
if 2763 holds, may pull back to 2794-2833
Monday, November 3, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 4th NOV
3010, nifty will be weak below this level, and may hit 2978-2930-2911 for intrday.
sustaining above 3010, nifty will go on to hit 3040-3091
actually charts shows that nifty may hit 3155 before it can really fall in the short term, and i feel, positional shorts is still not a good idea.
sustaining above 3010, nifty will go on to hit 3040-3091
actually charts shows that nifty may hit 3155 before it can really fall in the short term, and i feel, positional shorts is still not a good idea.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 3rd NOV
Nifty will show some strength on opening based on good news over the weekend.
now nifty sustaining above 3046, could have the strenght to go up to 32xx levels in this week.
i feel 3255 will be an important level to watch out for on the upside.
however if trades below 3046, may get weak, as dow ( US Markets) is also at resistence levels.
still positional trade has to be avoided for the week, and for intra levels be in the chat room.
now nifty sustaining above 3046, could have the strenght to go up to 32xx levels in this week.
i feel 3255 will be an important level to watch out for on the upside.
however if trades below 3046, may get weak, as dow ( US Markets) is also at resistence levels.
still positional trade has to be avoided for the week, and for intra levels be in the chat room.
Saturday, November 1, 2008
NIFTY UPDATES- Week begining 03.11.08
Dear Friends,
Last week was a particularly noteworthy week.There are two reasons for the statement,the first reason being that Nifty moved in tandem with expectations and gyrated within the weekly zone of 2250 and 2950 and the second reason being that the two delivery calls given in mid week for short term investment hit the Bulls eye from the bears zone.We had given two delivery calls to premium clients.Hindoilexp at 43 and ICICI bank at 290 odd levels.It is not common to get 63%+ returns in Mid cap FNO stocks in four flat trading sessions.Same goes with returns on Icici bank.Now let me come back to the reason why I had mentioned the above two trades.It has been my personal observation as well as advise from experienced traders that In a Bull Market its all about your holding capacity while in a Bear market its all about your timings which matters."
In a Bull market more then 80% stocks empirically take part in an up move.In a bear market more then 90% stocks take part in a down move.Stock selection is always important but equally or rather more important is timing in the bear run.You have to time both your entry and exit to survive in trading in a bear market in Dalal street.Now coming to the broader views I was personally surprised to hear about status quo on Rbi policy meet on Monday 27th October.I am not at all surprised today after the announcement of 100 bps CRR cut,100 bps SLR cut and 50 bps Repo rate cut by Rbi.I believe the Govt of India is also for a change following the technical of the market.Any Technical analyst can bet with me that the selling on Monday was bound to happen with or without rate cuts.We are atleast in a small short term uptrend now where stocks wont be sold after the news is out.
I wont extrapolate from Nifty levels whether one should invest now or later.For me and many more traders many stocks were in BUY zone once we were in vicinity to 4000 levels in Nifty.Its surprising that people now have a Bullish target of 4000 in Nifty.Any buys by me has been done keeping long term view in mind.There is a small pre election rally in Dow jones as of now.We will move similarly to the movement of the overseas markets in coming sessions after the effect of the rate cuts eases out.For those who believe that they have missed out a major bear market rally kindly note that in a bear market the rallies are used not to add but to churn your portfolio.Use the current rally to exit leveraged trades,leveraged companies and Bad investments.
Technically Nifty has a resistance now at 20 day moving avg at 3166.The real resistance is at 50dma at 3636.Kindly dont be trapped in a bear market pull back.Use decent pullbacks to get rid of indecent stocks in your folio.Exit the likes of ispat industry,wwil,DCB,unitech,suzlon and other penny stocks.I am using the word penny as they are future penny stocks for me technically. :)
There was a blow off rally witnessed in Reliance,Hdfc and Icici bank in previous session.On Friday Night sebi had released data on the outstanding short positions of Fiis on 9th October.There is a question mark whether the positions are outstanding anymore or not.Seeing the movement of the above mentioned stocks in last two-three sessions a majority of them seems to be covered.It might be one of the main reasons for a Buy figure of 1237.21 crs.I am not sure of the same as I dont have access to the latest fiis short sell data (Since Outstanding positions on October 31st is not uploaded.)I will advise traders to be cautiously optimistic for the coming week as there is some serious short covering rallies but as always the question in my mind is what is the next Big tradeable trend.I simply wont recommend any trades without sl in coming week.
Nifty support,2921,2787
Nifty resistance-3166,3289
Last week was a particularly noteworthy week.There are two reasons for the statement,the first reason being that Nifty moved in tandem with expectations and gyrated within the weekly zone of 2250 and 2950 and the second reason being that the two delivery calls given in mid week for short term investment hit the Bulls eye from the bears zone.We had given two delivery calls to premium clients.Hindoilexp at 43 and ICICI bank at 290 odd levels.It is not common to get 63%+ returns in Mid cap FNO stocks in four flat trading sessions.Same goes with returns on Icici bank.Now let me come back to the reason why I had mentioned the above two trades.It has been my personal observation as well as advise from experienced traders that In a Bull Market its all about your holding capacity while in a Bear market its all about your timings which matters."
In a Bull market more then 80% stocks empirically take part in an up move.In a bear market more then 90% stocks take part in a down move.Stock selection is always important but equally or rather more important is timing in the bear run.You have to time both your entry and exit to survive in trading in a bear market in Dalal street.Now coming to the broader views I was personally surprised to hear about status quo on Rbi policy meet on Monday 27th October.I am not at all surprised today after the announcement of 100 bps CRR cut,100 bps SLR cut and 50 bps Repo rate cut by Rbi.I believe the Govt of India is also for a change following the technical of the market.Any Technical analyst can bet with me that the selling on Monday was bound to happen with or without rate cuts.We are atleast in a small short term uptrend now where stocks wont be sold after the news is out.
I wont extrapolate from Nifty levels whether one should invest now or later.For me and many more traders many stocks were in BUY zone once we were in vicinity to 4000 levels in Nifty.Its surprising that people now have a Bullish target of 4000 in Nifty.Any buys by me has been done keeping long term view in mind.There is a small pre election rally in Dow jones as of now.We will move similarly to the movement of the overseas markets in coming sessions after the effect of the rate cuts eases out.For those who believe that they have missed out a major bear market rally kindly note that in a bear market the rallies are used not to add but to churn your portfolio.Use the current rally to exit leveraged trades,leveraged companies and Bad investments.
Technically Nifty has a resistance now at 20 day moving avg at 3166.The real resistance is at 50dma at 3636.Kindly dont be trapped in a bear market pull back.Use decent pullbacks to get rid of indecent stocks in your folio.Exit the likes of ispat industry,wwil,DCB,unitech,suzlon and other penny stocks.I am using the word penny as they are future penny stocks for me technically. :)
There was a blow off rally witnessed in Reliance,Hdfc and Icici bank in previous session.On Friday Night sebi had released data on the outstanding short positions of Fiis on 9th October.There is a question mark whether the positions are outstanding anymore or not.Seeing the movement of the above mentioned stocks in last two-three sessions a majority of them seems to be covered.It might be one of the main reasons for a Buy figure of 1237.21 crs.I am not sure of the same as I dont have access to the latest fiis short sell data (Since Outstanding positions on October 31st is not uploaded.)I will advise traders to be cautiously optimistic for the coming week as there is some serious short covering rallies but as always the question in my mind is what is the next Big tradeable trend.I simply wont recommend any trades without sl in coming week.
Nifty support,2921,2787
Nifty resistance-3166,3289
Thursday, October 30, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 31st OCT
Nifty will be very weak if breaks 2680 levels, may see 2624-2585.
if sustains above 2710, could go on to hit 2805 levels.
will again be very volatile today, so trade with strict SL, and keep booking small profits.
closing above 2745 will be very good for the market in comming week, and closing below 2680, may show some weakness.
if sustains above 2710, could go on to hit 2805 levels.
will again be very volatile today, so trade with strict SL, and keep booking small profits.
closing above 2745 will be very good for the market in comming week, and closing below 2680, may show some weakness.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 29th OCT
Nifty fut shows a tgt of 2870 crossing 2745. I think nifty may soon see 2870, but if it will cross of not - i have no idea on that.one thing for sure,
i will try some shorts when nifty is close to 2870 with a sl above it, as this major upmove will be too for a bear market to handle.
not able to close above 2870 , it may again resume its downward journey in next few sessions.for intraday, 2745 will be an imp level to watch.
if we get a big gap up, there could be heavy shorts roll over, so avoid longs in a big gap up.also being the expiry day, we will see high volatility for sure.
i will try some shorts when nifty is close to 2870 with a sl above it, as this major upmove will be too for a bear market to handle.
not able to close above 2870 , it may again resume its downward journey in next few sessions.for intraday, 2745 will be an imp level to watch.
if we get a big gap up, there could be heavy shorts roll over, so avoid longs in a big gap up.also being the expiry day, we will see high volatility for sure.
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 27th OCT
Well, daily the lower side target gets exhausted, and we keep falling.
after analysing the Long term charts, i feel that 2380 spot is the level,which will hold in this down fall, and nifty MIGHT MIGHT MIGHT not break this level.
but yes, nifty is defntly expected to go there, before any big upmove can come.well, can it happen today????
for intraday crossing 2650, nifty will hit 2693 atleast.below 2650, thr is no hopes, and nifty may tgt 2380 levels
after analysing the Long term charts, i feel that 2380 spot is the level,which will hold in this down fall, and nifty MIGHT MIGHT MIGHT not break this level.
but yes, nifty is defntly expected to go there, before any big upmove can come.well, can it happen today????
for intraday crossing 2650, nifty will hit 2693 atleast.below 2650, thr is no hopes, and nifty may tgt 2380 levels
views-Updates on the weekly note begining 27.10.08
Dear Friends,
There is some political gupshup which i have missed in my weekly review.Will request traders to better wait and watch.I don't change my views frequently but i will be closely watching political news now.We at India have a high degree of negative correlation with political stability.True there is a genuine support at 2380,I have no idea what will happen post the bounce from the same support.Kindly use higher levels to shuffle the folio instead of fresh buying now.
Regards
There is some political gupshup which i have missed in my weekly review.Will request traders to better wait and watch.I don't change my views frequently but i will be closely watching political news now.We at India have a high degree of negative correlation with political stability.True there is a genuine support at 2380,I have no idea what will happen post the bounce from the same support.Kindly use higher levels to shuffle the folio instead of fresh buying now.
Regards
Muharat picks-Diwali to Diwali
Muharat picks-Vikram samvat 2065
Only buy if you can hold for 1 full year
Titan industry growth story intact.
Balmer lawrie- divd 17.50 rs cmp 230
Hind oil exploration-Gas earnings to start next year
Albert david. 3 rs dividend cmp 41
Only buy if you can hold for 1 full year
Titan industry growth story intact.
Balmer lawrie- divd 17.50 rs cmp 230
Hind oil exploration-Gas earnings to start next year
Albert david. 3 rs dividend cmp 41
Friday, October 24, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 24th OCT
Comming back to nifty, 2780 levels looks an easy tgt, dont try to catch the bottom, and any longs should be only restricted to intraday only.
For intraday today, we may see 2833, and if things get worse, 2782 is also in sight.
for any longs, we will have to watch in intraday only, so cant give any levels.
3012, 3078 are the resistence levels
For intraday today, we may see 2833, and if things get worse, 2782 is also in sight.
for any longs, we will have to watch in intraday only, so cant give any levels.
3012, 3078 are the resistence levels
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 22nd OCT
For intraday, nifty weak below 3210, may see 3170.
now 3167 is a very imp level for the rest of the week, and closing below it will be bad for the bulls.
yestrday, nifty gave a breakout, but couldnt sustain it, so bulls have to be a bit cautious.
However we are also making higher bottoms and higher tops, so signals are mixed.
Crossing 3266, nifty may go to hit 3309-3336, please trade with strict SL
now 3167 is a very imp level for the rest of the week, and closing below it will be bad for the bulls.
yestrday, nifty gave a breakout, but couldnt sustain it, so bulls have to be a bit cautious.
However we are also making higher bottoms and higher tops, so signals are mixed.
Crossing 3266, nifty may go to hit 3309-3336, please trade with strict SL
Monday, October 20, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 21st OCT
Nifty may open around 3210 levels, and for any upmove, it has to sustain above 3210.
holding 3210 we may see 3309-3355 ,where nifty will face strong resistence.
below 3210, nifty may slide to 3171-3146 levels for the day.
holding 3210 we may see 3309-3355 ,where nifty will face strong resistence.
below 3210, nifty may slide to 3171-3146 levels for the day.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 20th OCT
For intraday nifty might get support around the lower trend line that u see in the chart which is around 3000 levels breaking that, next levels are 2934-2863
Now 2863 is an area where nifty fut has long term support, and if that is also broken, nxt levels are 2672-2590.
well these are just the support levels on the downside, and and all we can do is just wait and watch, whr nifty takes support.
If nifty reverses and moves up, thn 3165 will be a level to watch closely.
Closing above 3165 will give some hopes of recovery in comming days
Now 2863 is an area where nifty fut has long term support, and if that is also broken, nxt levels are 2672-2590.
well these are just the support levels on the downside, and and all we can do is just wait and watch, whr nifty takes support.
If nifty reverses and moves up, thn 3165 will be a level to watch closely.
Closing above 3165 will give some hopes of recovery in comming days
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Week starting 20.10.08 .Why is only India Crashing..
Dear Friends,
After coverage in Live Mint(A Wall street Journal-Hindustan time pink paper) We has been covered in an 80 Years old Tamil based magazine "nanayaam vikatan".It has a coverage of 400000+ readers.We thank all our patrons for our continued success. Another bearish week passed by in "Halal eh dalal" street.Week on week Nifty is down 204 points.But the problem is that markets were up 211 points on Monday and on Tuesday it made a high of 3648.From a high of 3648 we made a low of 3047 on Friday.The momentum seen on the downside has not been by traders here for last 6 odd years.Many Investors have gone belly up out here in India by following the crowd.Portfolio size of many well known investors have contracted by more then 50%.I believe 50-65% portfolio contraction is normal in this bearish trend and the problem will arise if your folio is down more then 70%.To build a portfolio which is down more then 80% will be a problem and a real big one.I will suggest some switch overs which investors can do in there long term portfolio.I will also try and analyze the current status of almost all of our long term calls.At the same time I have a request for those investors in whose folio stocks have fallen by 80-90%.Its not time to panic.There are some old Golden words which are relevant even now.One of them being "If You want to panic,Panic early." If you believe that the company will survive for coming ten years then there is no point selling the same now at 10% of your cost.
I have been receiving a number of queries from tensed investors throughout the past week.I strongly believe that many brokers out here in India suffer from what i call the effect of past bullish virus.I wont name people but stocks like satyam computer,Infosys tech,Sesa Goa,Siemens and many many more still receive a Buy recommendation.The only point is that the target price is getting reduced.In january at 1700 Infosys had a Buy recommendation with a Traget price of 2100 at 1400 in April it was a Buy with a target price of 2400,at 1800 in July it was again a Buy with Tp of 2200.and last week i saw the same set of reports with target price of 1900 for infosys at 1200 odd levels.People have vested interest in brokerage firms for taking out Buy reports.Same is not the case with overseas investors.Hence we get a number of sell calls from foreign brokerages based in India.I wont like the same to be said about TSR.We dont carry monthly or quarterly review on our long term picks as we have one simple suggestion for Long term picks.Exit quantity equivalent to your cost at target 1.Will try and review most of our long term picks in this edition.
TANLA SOLUTIONS:
Initiated coverage at 272.followed up at 470. target was 600,1000.High was 850 and cmp is 162(81 rs 1 f.v) Hold the remaining stock with long term view.Current pe is approx 4.
IND BANK MERCHANTS
Initiated at 14.T.P of 21,24.High was 52.
Hold the remaining qty with long term view as Divd last year was 1.5 rs per share.Dont add it now .
Nile Limited: Recommended at 95 target was 135.stock saw 3XX after the Buy call.Cmp is 60. stock can be added for the dividend in very small qty.
ANDREW YULE: TARGET WAS ACHIEVED AND EXIT WAS GIVEN.DONT ENTER NOW.
SAME IS CASE WITH PSI DATA SYSTEM,JM FINANCIAL S,JAYASWAL NECO,MSP STEEL AND POWER,Il&fs investment managers,Hfcl,Tide water,Karutari network,
HIMALYA INTL,RATHI UDYOG,STC INDIA,Gmdc,Sicagen have fallen good percentage along with bear market moves.We don't believe in averages hence kindly don't average anyone of them.
Forbes and co.. can still be bought for long term holding at cmp.
Now coming to the markets to be truthful whenever i try and predict the bottom my hands get burned.I have been stopped out on two previous occasions in last six month while predicting a bottom.I have tried to project my analysis using the previous bear runs after the DOT.com bubble.But the correlation should not be made with previous bear run now.To be truthful there is an increasing belief in the markets that bear moves bottom out after 50-55% correction from the Top.I have always maintained and i still maintain i wont take positional longs in Nifty till stocks like DLF,UNITECH and Rel power are included in Nifty.Once they are thrown out Nifty Bees is an ideal Long term Buy with low holding costs.Why I wont like to have 100% belief in analyzing markets with the help of previous bear runs is that both the known Indian bear markets were an outcome of scams of Harshad mehta and ketan parekh fame. This Bear market is not similar as it has been an outcome of excesses of global liquidity and low interest rate.I dont know where the bottom is but i do know where the supports are and will use the Multi year supports for analyzing the same now.
To be truthful there was a Head and Shoulder in Sensex at 15000 odd levels with head at 21000 odd levels.But i had not anticipated in the wildest of my dream that we will be so near to the lower target of 9200 of the same.Now when we are near to the same let me try and analyze the outcome from here on fearlessly.I had mentioned three stocks for buying with 3-4 months view in mid week review on 16th october.I will advise traders to hold on to them.Titan has given an odd 17% recovery from those levels.Now coming to nifty as i have mentioned before we will have to refer to the Multi year supports to analyze the situation.2878 and 2596 are the next support for the Nifty.With Ril plummeting every day i wont try and find the bottom.Will request you to do the same.
I will advise some switchover in certain stocks and certain sectors.If my view is correct kindly leave a thanks note on the website www.niftyviews.com and if it is wrong kindly dont blame me as the views is an unbiased and the best possible view as of now.
STOCKS VIEW ARE OF LONG TERM NATURE:-
Ifci:-There is a joke doing rounds in market that there was a time when Morgan stanley along with sterlite was bidding for IFCI.Its time for Ifci to Bid for morgan stanley now.To be truthful even if a Bid is called now.ifci wont be valued above 45-50.Outcome:Convert ifci holding in IDFC.True idfc can fall more but it will also pullback whenever the bull market starts.
ISPAT ind: convert to sail before you burn your hands more.
Core projects:convert to ETC NETWORK
Sunflag,vikash metal: convert to sail,jsw steel
REL INFRA:convert to abb,tata power
ADLABS: convert to utv.Utv futs are trading at 350
TVS MOTORS:CONVERT TO ASHOK LEYLAND AND HERO HONDA.
ABAN : CONVERT TO RIL
RPL: CONVERT TO RIL( EVEN IF IT FALLS TO 1200 OR TO 3 DIGITS)
WWIL:CONVERT TO DISH TV.
TTML:convert to Idea.
SEL MCL: EXIT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE
RESURGERE MINES: EXIT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE
SANDUR MANGANESE: CONVERT TO SESA GOA.
My simple request to all boarders kindly dont loose hope in equity as an asset class.It is great in Long term and the concept of long term varies from person to person.For me Long term is something till I retire.Dont loose Hope.In past Indian markets have been the last one to breakdown,I have no idea if this is also one of those breakdowns.The peculiar thing i have personally noticed in Fridays trade is that most of the institutional heavy weight stocks have been sold.Specifically banking stocks like SBI,NTPC,PNB and some more heavy weights have broken important support levels.If these stocks break down further momentum on downside will only accelerate.The Only hope out here is the macd divergence as of now.We have fallen in October series from 4111 to 3074 yesterday if we fall more we will see forced liquidation of the last standing bull out over here. If there is no recovery the situation will only be grave.
Nifty support,2989-2878-25xx
Nifty resistance-3170-3269
NIFTY SHD MAKE IT TO 2995 TARGET ZONE...A CLOSE BELOW THAT WILL TAKE IT TO 2860-75 RANGE....
After coverage in Live Mint(A Wall street Journal-Hindustan time pink paper) We has been covered in an 80 Years old Tamil based magazine "nanayaam vikatan".It has a coverage of 400000+ readers.We thank all our patrons for our continued success. Another bearish week passed by in "Halal eh dalal" street.Week on week Nifty is down 204 points.But the problem is that markets were up 211 points on Monday and on Tuesday it made a high of 3648.From a high of 3648 we made a low of 3047 on Friday.The momentum seen on the downside has not been by traders here for last 6 odd years.Many Investors have gone belly up out here in India by following the crowd.Portfolio size of many well known investors have contracted by more then 50%.I believe 50-65% portfolio contraction is normal in this bearish trend and the problem will arise if your folio is down more then 70%.To build a portfolio which is down more then 80% will be a problem and a real big one.I will suggest some switch overs which investors can do in there long term portfolio.I will also try and analyze the current status of almost all of our long term calls.At the same time I have a request for those investors in whose folio stocks have fallen by 80-90%.Its not time to panic.There are some old Golden words which are relevant even now.One of them being "If You want to panic,Panic early." If you believe that the company will survive for coming ten years then there is no point selling the same now at 10% of your cost.
I have been receiving a number of queries from tensed investors throughout the past week.I strongly believe that many brokers out here in India suffer from what i call the effect of past bullish virus.I wont name people but stocks like satyam computer,Infosys tech,Sesa Goa,Siemens and many many more still receive a Buy recommendation.The only point is that the target price is getting reduced.In january at 1700 Infosys had a Buy recommendation with a Traget price of 2100 at 1400 in April it was a Buy with a target price of 2400,at 1800 in July it was again a Buy with Tp of 2200.and last week i saw the same set of reports with target price of 1900 for infosys at 1200 odd levels.People have vested interest in brokerage firms for taking out Buy reports.Same is not the case with overseas investors.Hence we get a number of sell calls from foreign brokerages based in India.I wont like the same to be said about TSR.We dont carry monthly or quarterly review on our long term picks as we have one simple suggestion for Long term picks.Exit quantity equivalent to your cost at target 1.Will try and review most of our long term picks in this edition.
TANLA SOLUTIONS:
Initiated coverage at 272.followed up at 470. target was 600,1000.High was 850 and cmp is 162(81 rs 1 f.v) Hold the remaining stock with long term view.Current pe is approx 4.
IND BANK MERCHANTS
Initiated at 14.T.P of 21,24.High was 52.
Hold the remaining qty with long term view as Divd last year was 1.5 rs per share.Dont add it now .
Nile Limited: Recommended at 95 target was 135.stock saw 3XX after the Buy call.Cmp is 60. stock can be added for the dividend in very small qty.
ANDREW YULE: TARGET WAS ACHIEVED AND EXIT WAS GIVEN.DONT ENTER NOW.
SAME IS CASE WITH PSI DATA SYSTEM,JM FINANCIAL S,JAYASWAL NECO,MSP STEEL AND POWER,Il&fs investment managers,Hfcl,Tide water,Karutari network,
HIMALYA INTL,RATHI UDYOG,STC INDIA,Gmdc,Sicagen have fallen good percentage along with bear market moves.We don't believe in averages hence kindly don't average anyone of them.
Forbes and co.. can still be bought for long term holding at cmp.
Now coming to the markets to be truthful whenever i try and predict the bottom my hands get burned.I have been stopped out on two previous occasions in last six month while predicting a bottom.I have tried to project my analysis using the previous bear runs after the DOT.com bubble.But the correlation should not be made with previous bear run now.To be truthful there is an increasing belief in the markets that bear moves bottom out after 50-55% correction from the Top.I have always maintained and i still maintain i wont take positional longs in Nifty till stocks like DLF,UNITECH and Rel power are included in Nifty.Once they are thrown out Nifty Bees is an ideal Long term Buy with low holding costs.Why I wont like to have 100% belief in analyzing markets with the help of previous bear runs is that both the known Indian bear markets were an outcome of scams of Harshad mehta and ketan parekh fame. This Bear market is not similar as it has been an outcome of excesses of global liquidity and low interest rate.I dont know where the bottom is but i do know where the supports are and will use the Multi year supports for analyzing the same now.
To be truthful there was a Head and Shoulder in Sensex at 15000 odd levels with head at 21000 odd levels.But i had not anticipated in the wildest of my dream that we will be so near to the lower target of 9200 of the same.Now when we are near to the same let me try and analyze the outcome from here on fearlessly.I had mentioned three stocks for buying with 3-4 months view in mid week review on 16th october.I will advise traders to hold on to them.Titan has given an odd 17% recovery from those levels.Now coming to nifty as i have mentioned before we will have to refer to the Multi year supports to analyze the situation.2878 and 2596 are the next support for the Nifty.With Ril plummeting every day i wont try and find the bottom.Will request you to do the same.
I will advise some switchover in certain stocks and certain sectors.If my view is correct kindly leave a thanks note on the website www.niftyviews.com and if it is wrong kindly dont blame me as the views is an unbiased and the best possible view as of now.
STOCKS VIEW ARE OF LONG TERM NATURE:-
Ifci:-There is a joke doing rounds in market that there was a time when Morgan stanley along with sterlite was bidding for IFCI.Its time for Ifci to Bid for morgan stanley now.To be truthful even if a Bid is called now.ifci wont be valued above 45-50.Outcome:Convert ifci holding in IDFC.True idfc can fall more but it will also pullback whenever the bull market starts.
ISPAT ind: convert to sail before you burn your hands more.
Core projects:convert to ETC NETWORK
Sunflag,vikash metal: convert to sail,jsw steel
REL INFRA:convert to abb,tata power
ADLABS: convert to utv.Utv futs are trading at 350
TVS MOTORS:CONVERT TO ASHOK LEYLAND AND HERO HONDA.
ABAN : CONVERT TO RIL
RPL: CONVERT TO RIL( EVEN IF IT FALLS TO 1200 OR TO 3 DIGITS)
WWIL:CONVERT TO DISH TV.
TTML:convert to Idea.
SEL MCL: EXIT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE
RESURGERE MINES: EXIT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE
SANDUR MANGANESE: CONVERT TO SESA GOA.
My simple request to all boarders kindly dont loose hope in equity as an asset class.It is great in Long term and the concept of long term varies from person to person.For me Long term is something till I retire.Dont loose Hope.In past Indian markets have been the last one to breakdown,I have no idea if this is also one of those breakdowns.The peculiar thing i have personally noticed in Fridays trade is that most of the institutional heavy weight stocks have been sold.Specifically banking stocks like SBI,NTPC,PNB and some more heavy weights have broken important support levels.If these stocks break down further momentum on downside will only accelerate.The Only hope out here is the macd divergence as of now.We have fallen in October series from 4111 to 3074 yesterday if we fall more we will see forced liquidation of the last standing bull out over here. If there is no recovery the situation will only be grave.
Nifty support,2989-2878-25xx
Nifty resistance-3170-3269
NIFTY SHD MAKE IT TO 2995 TARGET ZONE...A CLOSE BELOW THAT WILL TAKE IT TO 2860-75 RANGE....
My View
Dear friends,
Its a mid week review.My views are generally on weekly basis but extraordinary time requires mid week review.There is a consensus that we will go down.For me My downside target is nearing as of now.If we panic more we might see a 29XX.Moreover even if one more US bank goes bust which is unlikely we might see at max 25XX.Its only 20% lower from current valuations.Moreover government is now actively trying to stabilize markets.With panic at its peak.I wont mind buying some stocks now.I have always mantained that i dont like Nifty till it includes stocks like DLF and Unitech.At the same time i am quite positive on ICICI bank now as the stock has made a higher bottom.My sl will be at 325 for the trade with potential target of 465 and 530 on upside.Its for bravehearts only.I am also positive on two of RJ picks hindoilexp and Titan.Holding period wont be less then 3-4 months.
Its a mid week review.My views are generally on weekly basis but extraordinary time requires mid week review.There is a consensus that we will go down.For me My downside target is nearing as of now.If we panic more we might see a 29XX.Moreover even if one more US bank goes bust which is unlikely we might see at max 25XX.Its only 20% lower from current valuations.Moreover government is now actively trying to stabilize markets.With panic at its peak.I wont mind buying some stocks now.I have always mantained that i dont like Nifty till it includes stocks like DLF and Unitech.At the same time i am quite positive on ICICI bank now as the stock has made a higher bottom.My sl will be at 325 for the trade with potential target of 465 and 530 on upside.Its for bravehearts only.I am also positive on two of RJ picks hindoilexp and Titan.Holding period wont be less then 3-4 months.
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 17th OCT
Nifty looks great for an upmove only till 3250 is held, it can hit 3445-3490 levels for the day.
breaking 3250, weakness will set in, tgts are 3225-3195
now in the chart, if u see, we may go close to the upper trendline, and hit around 3457 levels before we continue with the downward jouney again.
till we breakout of the upper trendline, we may fall hard anytime, play smart.
breaking 3250, weakness will set in, tgts are 3225-3195
now in the chart, if u see, we may go close to the upper trendline, and hit around 3457 levels before we continue with the downward jouney again.
till we breakout of the upper trendline, we may fall hard anytime, play smart.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 16th OCT
Breaking 3216, now i see a tgt of 3076. we just wait for a pull back to go short, but the market doesnt wait, it just keeps falling.
Markets may open around 3229 today, if pulls back from there, we may see an upmove for the day, however if breaks thn it will also break the previous low of 3216 and may head towards 3076.
if a new low is not made today, thn we will pull back to 3390 levels before we can fall again.
If u see the 2 black lines on my chart forming a downward channel, the lower line is arnd 3076 which looks like a definate tgt
Markets may open around 3229 today, if pulls back from there, we may see an upmove for the day, however if breaks thn it will also break the previous low of 3216 and may head towards 3076.
if a new low is not made today, thn we will pull back to 3390 levels before we can fall again.
If u see the 2 black lines on my chart forming a downward channel, the lower line is arnd 3076 which looks like a definate tgt
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 15th OCT
Nifty may open around 3472 levels, and is really weak below 3472 fut.
Trading below 3472, nifty may fall to 3426-3412.
recovery if any can only be possibe if 3472 is crossed.
till then every rise is a short for the day.
Closing below 3472 would give a target of 3335 in this week
Trading below 3472, nifty may fall to 3426-3412.
recovery if any can only be possibe if 3472 is crossed.
till then every rise is a short for the day.
Closing below 3472 would give a target of 3335 in this week
Monday, October 13, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 14th OCT
Nifty may open around 3640 levels for intraday , resistence being at 3641 levels, above this level, nxt targets are 3667-3712 where one should be very cautious about longs.
3750 is a level which may not cross in short term and positional traders may look to short at those levels.
Just a word of caution for those over bullish traders, today is just the 2nd day that we will be trading after making a yearly low, and this is just a technical bounce. so dont forget to book profits as and when you get them.
3750 is a level which may not cross in short term and positional traders may look to short at those levels.
Just a word of caution for those over bullish traders, today is just the 2nd day that we will be trading after making a yearly low, and this is just a technical bounce. so dont forget to book profits as and when you get them.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 13th OCT
Last week i had mentioned that "dow had made a double bottom around 10,260, and if broken can creat HAVOC in the world markets", and yes thats exctly what we saw last week. Now dow has support around 7450 levels, thats apprx 1000 points from here. for any positive moves, dow has to close above 8881, which may bring in a relief rally.
For Nifty, it looks like it got support at one of its medium term trendline which may or may not hold.as of now if nifty holds friday's low of 3216, it can pull back to 3389-3517-3610 levels for the week, breaking it would mean 2890 on the cards. Closing above 3389 may quickly take nifty to 3517 levels
Now for intraday, again supp around 3216, if broken, may see 3140 levels.if 3216 is held, nifty may pull up to 3335-3389 levels, where it will face strong resistence.
For Nifty, it looks like it got support at one of its medium term trendline which may or may not hold.as of now if nifty holds friday's low of 3216, it can pull back to 3389-3517-3610 levels for the week, breaking it would mean 2890 on the cards. Closing above 3389 may quickly take nifty to 3517 levels
Now for intraday, again supp around 3216, if broken, may see 3140 levels.if 3216 is held, nifty may pull up to 3335-3389 levels, where it will face strong resistence.
Week starting 13.10.08 .India Gate is crashing down
Dear Friends,
Unusual days,Unusual events,unusual outcomes and usual speeches.I would like to note two announcements which we hear almost every alternate day now.'Indian economy is on a sound wicket."-Its clean Bold."There is no problem in Indian banking system and all banks are well capitalized."-Why is ICICI BANK falling everyday."Our GDP will grow at 8%."-IIP Numbers are painting a different picture.
All Icici bank depositors Got a sms from the bank today stating"Your deposits with Icici bank is safe.Your bank is well capitalized with good liquidity.Please do not listen to baseless rumors."My only question is we all know that the bank is well capitalized with the FPO at 940 odd bucks.We all also know that the deposits in India are all safe in any Private or Public sector bank.We all know all deposits in ICICI bank is safe as there is nothing wrong in Indian banks.Why dont we hear about the exact exposure to each commercial paper of the foreign branch in each institution.Till the time we hear about the same the stock might be beaten down mercilessly.Even yesterday when the stock tanked 20+% points there was 26% delivery volume(38.60 lakhs) and surprisingly there was an addition of open interest at 33.24Lakhs.If it was a bear run and everything was fine with the balance sheet of the bank then the delivery volumes should have been at lower then 10% and open interest should have reduced.Since nothing happened there is surely fire somewhere.I have no idea on the balance sheet of icici bank and its subsidiaries but yes the stock market knows more then what I or you do.We might see an upmove in ICICI post its results are announced.One should be cautious in shorting the stock near to its Book value.
Markets react before the data is made public.We were hearing till yesterday that Indian economy is on a strong footing.We will survive the sub prime mess.Our industrial production is strong.After the announcement of the IIP data for the first time in recent history i heard about the term recession in Indian context.Markets have cracked 50% when people were painting a rosy picture for the economy and now at 3200 odd levels people are talking about an industrial recession.I will again say markets react before the actual news is out.Will like to add that IIP numbers will pick up as raw material prices have fallen considerably in recent days.
Core projects tanked 43% in trades yesterday.Stock is a product of the Bull market which might be killed in a bear phase.We had a short call in weekly positional trades only this week in it.Although our targets were not that low in the stock.Stock can see 100-70 odd levels in coming days.All products of the bull market are being consumed by the bears to enhance there MTM margins.The problem now is that instead of 12 or 24 months charts.We have to refer 120 months chart to analyze Multi year supports for the stock.For example Rel capital next support is at 600-410.Traders can use any rise to 900 to short the stock sl will be at 949.The problem now is that there is a consensus for a 20-25% pull back.Markets generally move in such a way to cause maximum pain to the consensus.As i have previously quoted i am dead scared to Buy as a Bull. I will like to give an example with a stock i have been trading in 4 years now.Oswal chemicals-25-30 used to be a yearly support level.Company is fundamentally good with net cash of more then 50 rs per share in Books and some real estate investments on its own land.Five days back stock was at 18 odd levels.A value buying time for me.Next day stock cracked to 16.70.I didnt enter seeing Nifty breakdown.very next day oswal chemical cracked to 14.75. and on yesterday to 12 odd levels.In short term there is no impact of fundamentals.Company can easily rise to 14 in coming days but supply will be from everyone who bought earlier.Markets move on supply and demand principle.So I wont enter till i am comfortable with nifty stability
Unusual days,Unusual events,unusual outcomes and usual speeches.I would like to note two announcements which we hear almost every alternate day now.'Indian economy is on a sound wicket."-Its clean Bold."There is no problem in Indian banking system and all banks are well capitalized."-Why is ICICI BANK falling everyday."Our GDP will grow at 8%."-IIP Numbers are painting a different picture.
All Icici bank depositors Got a sms from the bank today stating"Your deposits with Icici bank is safe.Your bank is well capitalized with good liquidity.Please do not listen to baseless rumors."My only question is we all know that the bank is well capitalized with the FPO at 940 odd bucks.We all also know that the deposits in India are all safe in any Private or Public sector bank.We all know all deposits in ICICI bank is safe as there is nothing wrong in Indian banks.Why dont we hear about the exact exposure to each commercial paper of the foreign branch in each institution.Till the time we hear about the same the stock might be beaten down mercilessly.Even yesterday when the stock tanked 20+% points there was 26% delivery volume(38.60 lakhs) and surprisingly there was an addition of open interest at 33.24Lakhs.If it was a bear run and everything was fine with the balance sheet of the bank then the delivery volumes should have been at lower then 10% and open interest should have reduced.Since nothing happened there is surely fire somewhere.I have no idea on the balance sheet of icici bank and its subsidiaries but yes the stock market knows more then what I or you do.We might see an upmove in ICICI post its results are announced.One should be cautious in shorting the stock near to its Book value.
Markets react before the data is made public.We were hearing till yesterday that Indian economy is on a strong footing.We will survive the sub prime mess.Our industrial production is strong.After the announcement of the IIP data for the first time in recent history i heard about the term recession in Indian context.Markets have cracked 50% when people were painting a rosy picture for the economy and now at 3200 odd levels people are talking about an industrial recession.I will again say markets react before the actual news is out.Will like to add that IIP numbers will pick up as raw material prices have fallen considerably in recent days.
Core projects tanked 43% in trades yesterday.Stock is a product of the Bull market which might be killed in a bear phase.We had a short call in weekly positional trades only this week in it.Although our targets were not that low in the stock.Stock can see 100-70 odd levels in coming days.All products of the bull market are being consumed by the bears to enhance there MTM margins.The problem now is that instead of 12 or 24 months charts.We have to refer 120 months chart to analyze Multi year supports for the stock.For example Rel capital next support is at 600-410.Traders can use any rise to 900 to short the stock sl will be at 949.The problem now is that there is a consensus for a 20-25% pull back.Markets generally move in such a way to cause maximum pain to the consensus.As i have previously quoted i am dead scared to Buy as a Bull. I will like to give an example with a stock i have been trading in 4 years now.Oswal chemicals-25-30 used to be a yearly support level.Company is fundamentally good with net cash of more then 50 rs per share in Books and some real estate investments on its own land.Five days back stock was at 18 odd levels.A value buying time for me.Next day stock cracked to 16.70.I didnt enter seeing Nifty breakdown.very next day oswal chemical cracked to 14.75. and on yesterday to 12 odd levels.In short term there is no impact of fundamentals.Company can easily rise to 14 in coming days but supply will be from everyone who bought earlier.Markets move on supply and demand principle.So I wont enter till i am comfortable with nifty stability
Rbi withdraws 10000 crs of Bond auction.My only question did Rbi had any other option to ease liquidity.With call rates at 18-22% and banks offering 15% in 15 days deposit we are clearly heading for tough times.If you say things will improve tomorrow.get up from your dream and be awake.We might see small bounces but sadly none of them will sustain more then 3 days and if it does then it might be one of those bear market squeeze which will screw bears who only know positional shorts.Live in truth rest is your own wish.MACD indicates bottom is not yet visible.Oversold Rsi will provide some 1-2 days rallies were people will do value buying.
For all investors invest in Fixed deposits only in SBI till we see Fii sell figures reduce.It was at 2513 crs yesterday.The highest i have noticed in recent days.And if you still want to be in the vicious circle of Buy at Top and average at every downside and panic near to the bottom and then blame the markets I have nothing to say.Have a profitable week.
At the time of writing this article i have zero positions in Nifty or any other derivative instruments.I intend to limit my trading to Intraday in coming weeks.
No support is sacred in a BEAR MARKET.
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 10TH OCT
3243 could be the next low, but long term support only at 2900 levels now, cant say anything else, and we have to see what can be done in intraday during markets
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
NIFTY INTRA DAY LEVELS FOR 8th OCT, 2008
Till we see a close above 3729( A VERY IMP LEVEL FOR ANY TREND REVERSAL),
nifty will always be in a danger to fall more and more.
in my chart, if u notice a black line, thts the last hope for markets which crosses around 3515 fut levels.
hopefully this will hold, else 3400 can come very easily.
for intraday, breaking 3515, we may see 3474-3426 levels.
crossing above 3654, nifty may hit 3729 levels.
still taking a positional view will be very difficult on the markets as all SL will be very far off.
So try and trade intraday, and avoid carrying any positions
nifty will always be in a danger to fall more and more.
in my chart, if u notice a black line, thts the last hope for markets which crosses around 3515 fut levels.
hopefully this will hold, else 3400 can come very easily.
for intraday, breaking 3515, we may see 3474-3426 levels.
crossing above 3654, nifty may hit 3729 levels.
still taking a positional view will be very difficult on the markets as all SL will be very far off.
So try and trade intraday, and avoid carrying any positions
Monday, October 6, 2008
NIFTY INTRA DAY LEVELS FOR 7th OCT, 2008
The good news first - Dow (US markets) has seen double bottom around 10,260, and i expect a bounce up to 10,600- 10,800-11,046 levels , which could come in this week.
i strongly feel that this double bottom of 10,260 will hold for sometime, and only some very bad news can break it, and if broken, it can lead to a selloff in global markets.
So nifty closing above 3894, may rally up to 4109-4138 in this week.
Now for Intraday, Nifty still looks weak on charts and trading below 3830 it may fall to 3777-3749 levels.
if trades above 3868, nifty will get a lot of strenght and may go up to 3896- 3925 levels
i strongly feel that this double bottom of 10,260 will hold for sometime, and only some very bad news can break it, and if broken, it can lead to a selloff in global markets.
So nifty closing above 3894, may rally up to 4109-4138 in this week.
Now for Intraday, Nifty still looks weak on charts and trading below 3830 it may fall to 3777-3749 levels.
if trades above 3868, nifty will get a lot of strenght and may go up to 3896- 3925 levels
Sunday, October 5, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 06 OCT, 2008
The good news first - Dow (US markets) has seen double bottom around 10,260, and i expect a bounce up to 10,600- 10,800-11,046 levels , which could come in this week.
i strongly feel that this double bottom of 10,260 will hold for sometime, and only some very bad news can break it, and if broken, it can lead to a selloff in global markets.
So nifty closing above 3894, may rally up to 4109-4138 in this week.
Now for Intraday, Nifty still looks weak on charts and trading below 3830 it may fall to 3777-3749 levels.
if trades above 3868, nifty will get a lot of strenght and may go up to 3896- 3925 levels
i strongly feel that this double bottom of 10,260 will hold for sometime, and only some very bad news can break it, and if broken, it can lead to a selloff in global markets.
So nifty closing above 3894, may rally up to 4109-4138 in this week.
Now for Intraday, Nifty still looks weak on charts and trading below 3830 it may fall to 3777-3749 levels.
if trades above 3868, nifty will get a lot of strenght and may go up to 3896- 3925 levels
Stategy for the week starting 06th October 08
Its time for all of us to go back to Nursery schools.The Primary reason being that if you index the small cap stocks.If you make a comparison with the price level of the same stocks some years back.You might see that some stocks have given negative returns on the same time line.Some of the stocks in my coverage have also fallen like nine pins.The Old nursery rhyme that London Bridge is falling down seems so True in the Indian stock markets.To pinpoint the same msp steel(down 35%)(in last one month),jayaswal neco(down 44%),rathi steel(down 25%).Ion exchange(34%),forbes and com(5%),Ilfs investment managers (21%).There is surely some detrimental news flow in steel stocks but the same is true for almost any stock in the market.
As an European dealer rightly pointed out some days back that markets are "Long on asset and short on cash."Anything which is an asset for an investor is being sold off and when everything is being sold off the valuations take a back seat.No point talking about valuations when people see liquidity and start a sell off.Now coming back to markets,people might give lower levels of 3200 or anything.I will still say for me downside at 3800 seems limited.I am not positive at 4100 odd levels but i am not negative at 3800 odd levels.I am personally expecting that we might just a small panic selling on Monday or Tuesday and a smooth rise from those levels.I have no idea that Where will the rise take us as markets are following the random theory as of now.I can be correct on a broader market basis as levels can never be precise in a low volume market.
Million dollar question: what to Buy and when to Buy?My reply will be Buy oversold stocks with good fundamentals which might survive the bear run even if its in a cyclical industry.Also do note that there are 20% pull back in broader index from lows even in a Bear Market.No point shorting it @ lower levels on a positional basis.In the words of jesse livermore,My ideal trader in bear market.Market will bottom out when the index continues to falls but momentum stocks stop making new lows.If i consider real estate as momentum stocks for bears then markets might just be bottoming out.
Do remember I consider myself more as a Trader in a bear market and i love to capture every move.So Kindly be polite and dont blame me if I talk about shorts again at 4XXX levels for lower levels.At the same time if by chance you are carrying shorts do remember to book full profits below 3700 odd levels.
:)
Nifty support,3670,3710-
Nifty resistance-3931-3958-4095
As an European dealer rightly pointed out some days back that markets are "Long on asset and short on cash."Anything which is an asset for an investor is being sold off and when everything is being sold off the valuations take a back seat.No point talking about valuations when people see liquidity and start a sell off.Now coming back to markets,people might give lower levels of 3200 or anything.I will still say for me downside at 3800 seems limited.I am not positive at 4100 odd levels but i am not negative at 3800 odd levels.I am personally expecting that we might just a small panic selling on Monday or Tuesday and a smooth rise from those levels.I have no idea that Where will the rise take us as markets are following the random theory as of now.I can be correct on a broader market basis as levels can never be precise in a low volume market.
Million dollar question: what to Buy and when to Buy?My reply will be Buy oversold stocks with good fundamentals which might survive the bear run even if its in a cyclical industry.Also do note that there are 20% pull back in broader index from lows even in a Bear Market.No point shorting it @ lower levels on a positional basis.In the words of jesse livermore,My ideal trader in bear market.Market will bottom out when the index continues to falls but momentum stocks stop making new lows.If i consider real estate as momentum stocks for bears then markets might just be bottoming out.
Do remember I consider myself more as a Trader in a bear market and i love to capture every move.So Kindly be polite and dont blame me if I talk about shorts again at 4XXX levels for lower levels.At the same time if by chance you are carrying shorts do remember to book full profits below 3700 odd levels.
:)
Nifty support,3670,3710-
Nifty resistance-3931-3958-4095
Thursday, October 2, 2008
NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 3rd OCT
Nifty may open Around 3903, and charts shows next support around 3848-3802 levels only,
so dont stay long unless nifty is trading above 3903.
crossing 3920, nifty may move up to 3960 levels for intraday.
closing below 3903, dont dare to hold long positions
so dont stay long unless nifty is trading above 3903.
crossing 3920, nifty may move up to 3960 levels for intraday.
closing below 3903, dont dare to hold long positions
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
October 1st, 2008
Nifty will open with a gap up, and may go up to 4075-4091 for intraday, where it will face some serious resistence.
i dont expect nifty to cross 4091 without giving a dip, so any longs if held from lower levels should be booked out.
for any positional view, 3959 will be a very important level, and closing below this, may see some weakness in near term again.
i dont expect nifty to cross 4091 without giving a dip, so any longs if held from lower levels should be booked out.
for any positional view, 3959 will be a very important level, and closing below this, may see some weakness in near term again.
Monday, September 29, 2008
September 30, 2008
Another day, and fall, frankly markets doesnt have anything for bulls at all.nifty may open with a huge gap down around 3690 and may fall to 3636 fut for the day.
i know some of the bulls would have never dreamt about these levels, but yes, it can easily come now.
so now, is a bottom in place? who r we to decide?never fight the trend, and buying shud happen only once we see a reversal.
dont try to find the bottom
i know some of the bulls would have never dreamt about these levels, but yes, it can easily come now.
so now, is a bottom in place? who r we to decide?never fight the trend, and buying shud happen only once we see a reversal.
dont try to find the bottom
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Nifty Oct Fut (view for intraday-29th Sept 08)
Below 3920-3922 zone , expect panic and more caution, support at 3871-3873 range
For the week begining 29th Sept, 08
Dear Friends,
Last week saw another American banking giant collapse in the Sub prime mayhem.Washington mutual was the latest bank which has been involved in a force sell off by the US FED.It is said that the management of Washington Mutual came to know about the deal after the press release.Off course the shareholders of WAMU have been wiped out .For those who dont know about Washington mutual its the third largest bank in USA.There is an increasing news flow that Wachovia is the next kid on the block.
Coming to our markets we are in a trendless, volume less market.I believe that we might be in the very same range for coming months and may be quarters.Traders should note that the markets will give trading opportunities on either side.Point is that one should know when to buy and when to sell to make money.If a Trader can not short at 4400 he should not short at 4000 odd levels.Sl in both the cases is important.As of now the trend remains Sideways for me.There is a belief in a section of the markets that we might not sustain 3800 odd levels.For me its a double Bottom till now and until we close below the same I wont advise naked shorts in Nifty.There is always a Bear and a Bull market in some sectors/stocks in the market.One has to get hold of the same and make money in markets.
There are some important events scheduled for the coming week.
1. Before the Indian markets open on Monday we will react to the outcome of the US Congress decision on the 700bln$ bailout.
2.We have the quarterly closing on 30th of October and we will see some window dressing by mutual funds prior to the same.So have an eye on the Mf owned stocks.
3. We might see some Hedge funds redemption in the first week as some of them might have lost Good money in bad trades in Oil.
4.Keep a track of your trades.Any leverage even on the bear side which goes wrong can screw you.
5. Outcome of the vote by the US House of Representatives on nuke deal should also be known before the Indian markets open on Monday.
The problem with the markets as of now is No one knows which bank which FII is the next on the block.Fii to FII trades do give a hint to an investors.Bulls are scared to death before punching Buy orders.The open Interest of the FNO positions show the same.
I will say go for safe stocks or go for Gold bees for coming 6 months if you cannot time the markets.As the consolidation phase is expected to be that much long.Its peculiar but as of now the MACD of nifty is not giving a sell signal.With low volumes in Nifty one should trade cautiously
Broad support levels:-3911-3800-Below 3800 bears on free run.
Resistance levels 4116,4281
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